Project data
Authors Joshua M. Pearce
Completed 2021
Instance of Resilient food
alternative food
global catastrophic risk
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Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.


See also[edit | edit source]

Feeding Everyone No Matter What

Additional Information[edit source]

Davos IDRC Conference[edit source]

Page data
Type Project
Keywords global catastrophic risk, alternative food, ai
SDG Sustainable Development Goals SDG02 Zero Hunger, SDG12 Responsible consumption and production
Authors Joshua M. Pearce
Published 2021
License CC-BY-SA-4.0
Affiliations Free Appropriate Sustainable Technology, Western, ALLFED
Language English (en)
Impact Number of views to this page and its redirects. Updated once a month. Views by admins and bots are not counted. Multiple views during the same session are counted as one. 1
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