When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases in carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.
Keywords[edit | edit source]
carbon emissions; greenhouse gas emissions; global catastrophic risk; climate change; energy policy; human mortality; climate genocide
In the News[edit | edit source]
From FAST News
- Climate-changing human activity may cause 1 billion deaths Western News
- Over One Billion Lives at Risk if Earth Sees Two Degrees Celsius Mercury Spike by 2100: Study The Weather Channel
- Scientists Warn 1 Billion People on Track to Die From Climate Change Science Alert
- One BILLION people will die from climate change by 2100, study claims Daily Mail UK (780k circ)
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study The Times of India (circ 1.8m)
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study The Tribune India (circ 1.8m)
- The Death Toll From Climate Change Will Be Catastrophic, Scientists Say Futurism
- ‘We have to act fast': 2 degrees of warming could cause 1 billion deaths over next century MSN
- Climate change could cause 1 billion deaths over next century, study warns Your Weather UK
- Study predicts one billion deaths over the next century from climate change Earth.com
- 1 Billion People Could Die in the Next Century Due to Human-Caused Climate Change, Study Suggests The Science Times
- "Negligent manslaughter": Study finds climate change could kill 1 billion mostly poor people Salon
- Yahoo News
- MSN
- Ученые прогнозируют гибель 1 млрд человек после 2100 года из-за изменений климата gazeta ru
- Human Activity May Trigger 1 Billion Deaths: Western U Study Mirage News
- Climate-changing human activity could lead to 1 billion deaths over the next century, according to new study Phys.org
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Infobae
- Human-Caused Climate Change May Lead To One Billion Premature Deaths Over Next Century: Study SwachhIndia
- Global warming could kill 1 billion people, study says The Daily Science
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo … – Notimérica El Mundoiberico
- Global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius may cause 1 bn deaths: Study News Room Odisha
- Human-led climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths Rediff
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Infosalus
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study Dev Discourse
- Code Red for Humanity Times Now News
- Human-Caused Climate Change May Lead To 1 Billion Premature Deaths: Study NDTV
- Climate-changing human activity predicted to cause 1 billion deaths; new study Global Renewable News
- Global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius may cause 1 bn deaths: Study Investing India
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study Kashmir Vision
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study Decan Herald
- Global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius may cause 1 bn deaths: Study Nagaland Post
- El cambio climático matará a más de mil millones de personas el próximo siglo, según un estudio Antena
- Emissioni antropiche, rispettare Parigi causerà 1 mld di decessi prematuri Rinnovabili
- Predicen mil millones de muertes prematuras por cambio climático Radiokollasuyo
- Ciencia.-Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Publimetro
- Yeni çalışmaya göre insan kaynaklı iklim değişikliği nedeniyle gelecek yüzyılda 1 milyar insan ölebilir UNLB
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Diariodia
- El cambio climático matará a más de mil millones de personas el próximo siglo, según un estudio Torrevieja news today
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study Mathrubumi
- Crisi climatica: le emissioni antropiche causeranno un miliardo di morti premature nel prossimo secolo Ecodallecitta
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study The Print
- Una revisión de estudios predice mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Consalud
- Human-Caused Climate Change May Lead To 1 Billion Premature Deaths: Study Ordo News
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study ETV Bharat
- One Billion Lives at Risk: Oil and Gas Industry’s Carbon Emissions Linked to Premature Deaths, Urgent Action Required, India The Reportify
- one billion people will die prematurely, claims study | About 100 crore people will die prematurely Indo Mirror
- Vom Menschen verursachte Emissionen, die Paris respektieren, werden 1 Milliarde vorzeitige Todesfälle verursachen Italy 24 German
- https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/164dial/climatechanging_human_activity_could_lead_to_1/
- Anthropogenic Climate Change May Lead To 1 Billion Premature Deaths Over Next Century: Study Outlook Planet
- Global Temperature Rise To 2 Degrees Celsius May Cause 1 Bn Deaths: Study IBC World News
- Predicen mil millones de muertes prematuras por cambio climático Cronica
- Cientos de estudios científicos predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo BioBio Chile
- Global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius may cause 1 bn deaths: Study CanIndia
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo Dolar Today
- Predicen mil millones de muertes por el cambio climático en el próximo siglo TeleCinco
- Climate-changing human activity predicted to cause 1 billion deaths ES Euro
- Predicen mil millones de muertes ocasionadas por el cambio climático el próximo siglo El Tiempo
- Calentamiento global puede causar 1,000 millones de muertes en el planeta: estudio Newsweek Spanish
- Climate Change May Result In 1 Billion Premature Deaths Over Next Century, Study Warns Republic World
- El cambio climático matará a más de mil millones de personas el próximo siglo, según un estudio Head Topics
- Global Temperature Rise by 2 Degrees Celsius Likely to Cause 1 Billion Deaths - Study International Business Times
- 163.com
- Una revisión de estudios predice mil millones de muertes por cambio climático el próximo siglo ConSalud
- ‘One billion lives will be lost if global warming exceeds by 2 deg by 2100’ The Pioneer
- El cambio climático puede causar 1.000 millones de muertes prematuras RT
- La cifra impresionante de muertes que predicen 180 estudios científicos para el próximo siglo Economia Sustentable
- Predicen mil millones de muertes prematuras por cambio climático 20 Minutos
- Mudança climática pode causar um bilhão de mortes até 2100, diz cientista Tecmundo
- Calentamiento global puede causar 1,000 millones de muertes en el planeta: estudio Yahoo! Spanish
- Human-caused Climate Change May Lead to 1 Billion Premature Deaths Over Next Century, Study News 18
- El cambio climático puede causar 1.000 millones de muertes prematuras Eju
- Study suggests human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century Telangana Today
- Human-caused climate change may lead to one billion premature deaths: Study Millenium Post
- Human-caused climate change may lead to 1 billion premature deaths over next century: Study KashmirVision
- Cómo el cambio climático dejará mil millones de muertes hacia el año 2100 Wired (ES)
- How climate change will claim a billion lives by the year 2100 Nation World News
- For the next 100 years, 1 billion people will die untimely! Shocking report of scientists India Postsen
- El cambio climático causaría al menos 1.000 millones de muertes el próximo siglo, según estudio Semana
- Scientist says climate change could cause a billion deaths by 2100 Gagetonus
- Cambio climático ocasionaría 1.000 millones de muertes prematuras Contrapunto
- Knowledia
- Advierten cambio climático podría causar 1,000 millones de muertes prematuras De ultimominuto
- BizzBuzz
- India Posten
- Tutkimus: Ihmisen aiheuttama ilmastonmuutos voi johtaa miljardin ihmisen kuolemaan iltalehti fi
- Predicen mil millones de muertes ocasionadas por el cambio climático el próximo siglo el tiempo
- "1000톤의 법칙...지구온도 2℃ 상승시 10억명 조기사망" News Tree
- Egymilliárd ember élete száradhat a lelkünkön 24 Hu
- EcuaVisa
- albert news
- Earth is not the biggest threat from global warming. It’s the life of a billion people Nation World News
- Reutir
- La Tierra no es la mayor amenazada por el calentamiento global. Son las vidas de 1.000 millones de personas xataka
- Humanity Is Risking the Death of One Billion of Its Kind Due to Climate Change News Shield (with video)
- Hometown register
- Cambio climático podría ocasionar mil millones de muertesCambio climático podría ocasionar mil millones de muertes Sumedico
- ‘We Have to Act Fast’: 2 Degrees of Warming Could Cause 1 Billion Deaths Over Next Century EcoWatch
- 1 billion people are at risk of dying from climate change Vietnam PostSen
- An Australian Holocaust: greenhouse gas emissions and mass deaths Pearls and Irritations
- Hai ngành công nghiệp có thể khiến 1 tỷ người chết cuối thế kỷ này Dantri
- 1 billion premature deaths predicted thanks to climate change Tatva
- Global warming linked to fossil fuels could cause 1 billion deaths by 2100 Euro Day
- İklim değişikliği, bir milyar kişinin ölümüne neden olabilir! Ain
- The Daily Progress
- NE Iowa News
- Hazard Herald
- Messenger Inquirer
- Manchester Times
- Herald Leader
- Times Republican
- Le réchauffement climatique lié aux énergies fossiles pourrait causer 1 milliard de décès d’ici 2100 Trust My Science
- Climate change could result in the deaths of 1 billion poor people KSBY NBC
- Fox13
- &ABC Buffalo
- Humanity Is Risking the Death of One Billion of Its Kind Due to Climate Change Your Alaska LInk
- Technology Networks
- Tulsa World
- AOL
- Smart Water Magazine
- Nature News Africa
- East Mojo
- La crisi climatica innescata dai combustibili fossili potrebbe uccidere 1 miliardo di persone Green Report Italy
- Hausa TV
- Daily Kos
- worldtimetodays
- El Publico TV
- Tatva
- Whatsnew2day
- El Periodiquito
- Moment
- The Cable
- Media Feed
- One Green Planet
- Knowridge
- Down to Earth
- These are all the people who could die from climate change this century Gearrice
- One billion people at risk of dying due to climate change, study claims Travel Tomorrow
- Alarmists Predict ‘1 Billion’ Deaths from Climate Change This Century Breibart
- The Insurance Journal
- Green Queen HK
- Daily Geek Show
- Ecoportal
- UV and You
- Study: World Bank loaned billions to oil & gas despite green promises News5 Cleveland ABC
- Publimetro MX
- MetroWorld News Spanish
- Deadly forecast: rich get richer, poor suffer The Ethical Hour
- My hopes about climate change are wearing thin U Mass Media
- Turn to 23 ABC
- Techno Science
- Tribune
- Impacton
- Counter Punch
- ESEURO
- Archhyde
- California lawsuit accuses oil giants of decades of deception WPCO (ABC)
- Economica Digita Galicia
- Reform EE Estonia
- One Billion People Will Die Without Oil Production, Kuwait Official Claims - DeSmog
- Think this summer was bad? It might be the best one you and I will ever see Salon
- Yahoo News
- Inside Headline
- Reel Instagram
- Climate Change and the Big Lie Soapboxie
See also[edit | edit source]
.jpg)
keywords = carbon emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, global catastrophic risk, climate change, energy policy, human mortality, climate genocide