A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities

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Abstract
This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic. The only effect considered is nuclear winter (“nuclear autumn” in the low weapons limits) and the resultant effects on the aggressor nation. First, the ability of low nuclear weapon limits is probed for maintaining deterrence in the worst-case scenario of attacking the most-populous nation. Second, the ability of aggressor nations to feed themselves is assessed without trade and industry resultant from a nuclear attack causing “nuclear autumn” (10% global agricultural shortfall). Third, the best-case wealthy aggressor nation with abundant arable land is analyzed for starvation and economic impacts given 7000, 1000, and 100 nuclear weapons scenarios. The results found that 100 nuclear warheads is adequate for nuclear deterrence in the worst case scenario, while using more than 100 nuclear weapons by any aggressor nation (including the best positioned strategically to handle the unintended consequences) even with optimistic assumptions (including no retaliation) would cause unacceptable damage to their own society. Thus, 100 nuclear warheads is the pragmatic limit and use of government funds to maintain more than 100 nuclear weapons does not appear to be rational.

Feeding Everyone No Matter What

Keywords[edit | edit source]

nuclear war; global catastrophic risk; existential risk; nuclear weapons; nuclear proliferation; nuclear winter; national survival; futures; nuclear safety; atomic bombs; global catastrophic risk; existential risk;

See also[edit | edit source]

Davos IDRC Conference[edit | edit source]

In the News[edit | edit source]

Scientists estimate the outcome of 'best case scenario' in nuclear war
Nuclear war WARNING: Trump risks killing 50 times more Americans than 9/11 with OWN nukes
  • A Country That Has More Than 100 Nukes Is Just Owning Itself MotherBoard 167
  • Doomsday warning: It would only take 100 nuclear weapons to wreak global devastation Fox News 261, video Free Republic 21818
  • The Bowls of Wrath (Revelation 15) Medium 267
  • Morbid Researchers Imagine a 'Best-Case Scenario' for Nuclear War, and the Results Are Grim Gizmodo 508, Gizmodo Australia 17360
  • It would only take 100 nuclear weapons to destroy society NY Post (740, circ: 230,634)
  • How Many Nukes Would It Take To Totally Screw Humanity? IFL Science 3178
  • Nuclear holocaust needs only 100 missiles 9News (Australia) 6442
  • Here's What The "Best Case Scenario" For Nuclear Warfare Is Like, According to Science, Spoiler: not good, very bad. Science Alert 8078
  • If nuclear war breaks out, even best case escape scenarios prove futile International Business Times (India) 13203
  • Nuclear Arsenal Of Over 100 Weapons In One Country Becomes Self-Defeating: Study - IBT Times 17275
  • US needs to cut its nukes by 98% if the world is to avoid a nuclear winter Alphr 18225
  • It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, chilling study warns (yet there are 15,000 around the world) What really happened 46760
  • Don’t have too many nukes Electronics Weekly 128204
  • How many nuclear weapons is enough to have a country for its security The Weekly Observer
  • Scientists point out nuclear arsenal tipping point: 100 Knowridge Science Report
  • A “Modest Proposal 2.0”: How to Solve the Refugee Kids “Problem” Counter Punch
  • Nebraska in the national news: June 2018 News UNL 6423 (link to scholar there)
  • More than 100 nuclear weapons are unnecessary for any country and enough for a nuclear winter Weekly Observer

UK[edit | edit source]

  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Yahoo News UK 7
  • Scientists just analysed a ‘best case’ scenario nuclear war, and it’s pretty alarming Yahoo News UK 7
  • 'Best case scenario' for nuclear war could still trigger global 'nuclear autumn,' killing millions of people through starvation - including some of the attacker's own population, study warns Daily Mail (UK) 158 (3rd largest, circ: 1,343,142), Mogaznews, Unv.is (Sweden)
  • World War 3 WARNING: USA and Russia cautioned nuclear arsenals THREATEN entire world Daily Express (Uk)( 645, circ: 365,469 )
  • 100 warheads enough to cause starvation and 'nuclear autumn' Telegraph UK 553 (8th largest circ:385,346), Press Reader 7774
  • NUCLEAR AUTUMN Just 100 of the world’s 15,000 nuclear bombs are needed to devastate the planet, chilling study warns The Sun 837 (ranked #1 circ: 1,545,594)
  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback British Telecom 1501
  • Here’s how many nuclear weapons it would take to wipe out the UK Metro UK 1640
  • Nuclear war WARNING: Trump risks killing 50 times more Americans than 9/11 with OWN nukes Daily Star 2461 (7th largest circ:391,998)
  • Morbid Researchers Imagine a 'Best-Case Scenario' for Nuclear War, and the Results Are Grim Gizmodo UK 25147
  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Evening Express UK 79853, Express and Star 57236, Shropshire Star 97435, Bailiwick Express
  • Nuclear war would be ‘national suicide’ due to ‘blowback’ from doomsday weapons, scientists warn The World News UK 90329
  • It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, study warns Infosurhoy
  • There Are Way Too Many Nuclear Weapons - BTR Today
  • Doomsday warning: It would only take 100 nuclear weapons to wreak global devastation F3News
  • Center for Strategic Detterence Studies Media Defense.gov 24.4k

Russia[edit | edit source]

  • Физики из США уточнили прогнозы по наступлению "ядерной зимы" Ria (Russia) -391, Day.az 5958
  • Учёные сделали прогнозы по наступлению «ядерной зимы» и гибели человечества Rusvesna 2004
  • Ядерное оружие США уничтожит американцев без ответного удара 260 TV (Russia) 4853
  • Ученые спрогнозировали "ядерную зиму" utro.ru 11057
  • Teadlased: rohkem kui saja tuumapommi õhkimine võrdub riikliku enesetapuga Novaator (russia) 27183, w3.ee
  • Учёные сделали прогнозы по наступлению «ядерной зимы» и гибели человечества Poliksal (Russia), Newstut
  • Physicists from the United States said projections upon the occurrence of a «nuclear winter» Russia News Today

Other International[edit | edit source]

  • Bastavam 100 armas nucleares para transformar o mundo num inferno, dizem cientistas MSN Noticias 49
  • Científicos revelan cómo unas pocas bombas nucleares bastarían para devastar el planeta RT(Spanish) 306
  • Incluso el mejor de los escenarios de una futura guerra nuclear arroja unos resultados catastróficos Gizmodo (Spanish) 508
  • Le nombre d’armes nucléaires, suffisant pour provoquer une catastrophe planétaire, dévoilé Sputnik News France 648
  • „Zahynou miliony Američanů“: vědci varovali o následcích možného jaderného útoku pro USA Sputnik News CZ 648
  • Cientistas revelam como poucas bombas nucleares bastariam para devastar o planeta Sputnik News Brazil (Portugese) 651
  • Czy grozi nam „zima jądrowa”? Sputnik News Poland 651
  • Wojna jądrowa rozniesie wszystko w pył Sputnik News Poland 651
  • Kiedy i komu atak jądrowy może się opłacić? Wykop (Poland) 1150
  • El país que empiece una guerra nuclear no podrá evitar millones de muertes en su territorio La Vanguardia (Spanish) 1371 circulation: 196,824
  • Kiedy i komu atak jądrowy może się opłacić? Amerykańscy naukowcy obliczają bilans zysków i strat Wyborcza.pl Polish 3142
  • Izračunali koliko nuklearnih bombi treba za globalni kaos 24sata.hr (Bosnian) 4709
  • Teadlased: rohkem kui saja tuumapommi õhkimine võrdub riikliku enesetapuga Huerka Post Timees (Estonian)5719
  • Teadlastel on mõjuv seletus, miks tuumarünnak on liiga ohtlik, et ükski riik seda tõesti proovida julgeks Forte (Estonian) 6476
  • Ядерные державы полным ходом готовятся к Судному дню ZNAJ 11230
  • It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, world has 15,000 Deccan Chronicle (India) 7327
  • Taip pasaulis atrodytų po branduolinio karo. Ir tai – geriausias scenarijus Lrytas (Lithuanian) 7748
  • Why having over 100 nuclear weapons could do more harm than good to a country The Journal (Ireland) (8645, 750k unique users/ month)
  • Atomkrieg ist eine noch dümmere Idee als bisher gedacht Spektrum (German)-12846
  • Фізики повідомили про настання «ядерної зими» Читайте більше тут: Zik (Ukranian) 14715
  • De câte bombe atomice e nevoie pentru a distruge omenirea? Experţii spun că doar de 100 Click.ro (Romanian) 19887
  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Irish Examiner 21548
  • Nuclear holocaust needs only 100 missiles Defence Pakistan 21853
  • Použití více než 100 jaderných hlavic vede k lidským ztrátám i na straně agresora, tvrdí studie E15 CZ 22140
  • Jeziva studija: Naučnici izračunali koliko nuklearnih projektila treba za globalni haos KRStarica 27485
  • Seulement 100 missiles nucléaires suffiraient à provoquer une catastrophe planétaire, annoncent des chercheurs Wikistrike (French) 30097
  • Milioane de americani vor muri în cazul unui atac nuclear al SUA Sorutnik Romania 36505
  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Breaking News IE 34168
  • Tan solo 100 armas nucleares bastarían para causar una catástrofe global Quo (Spanish) 42,682
  • 100 de rachete nucleare pot distruge lumea Jurnalul (Romanian) 47039
  • Il ne faut que 100 bombes nucléaires pour provoquer une catastrophe dans le monde entier Le Vouvel Ordre Mondial 60,732
  • Οι πυρηνικές υπερδυνάμεις διαθέτουν από κοινού 15.000 κεφαλές τη στιγμή που μόλις 900 είναι αρκετές για αποτροπή Ptisidias Time (Greek) 67798
  • Atombomber vil gøre stor skade på afsenderens egen befolkning VidenSkab (Danish) 70120
  • Kaip pasaulis atrodytų po branduolinio karo? Pirmasis pasaulyje tokio tipo tyrimas - net geriausiu atveju pasekmės tiesiog katastrofiškos Technologies LT (Lithuanian 70857
  • Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Irish News 74823
  • Científicos revelan cómo unas pocas bombas nucleares bastarían para devastar el planeta Cuba Si 55037, World News Cuba Spanish 90329
  • ATOMKRIEG: DIE DROHUNG MIT DEM GEMEINSAMEN SELBSTMORD Dieunbestechlichen 48544
  • La miglior guerra nucleare possibile Hookii 93820
  • Conséquence d’une attaque nucléaire pour l’agresseur Actualite (French)
  • Incluso el mejor de los escenarios de una futura guerra nuclear arroja unos resultados catastróficos Tenemos Noticias
  • How Many Nukes Would It Take To Totally Screw Humanity? Feldian Business World
  • Científicos revelan cómo unas pocas bombas nucleares bastarían para devastar el planeta esinteresante
  • Evo koliko NUKLEARKI je potrebno za GLOBALNI HAOS I MILIONE MRTVIH U VAZDUHU Republika (Serbia)
  • It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, world has 15,000 Asian Age (India) 70538
  • Kaip pasaulis atrodytų po branduolinio karo? Bukimevieningi
  • 美研究:坐擁逾百顆核彈頭不切實際 Chinese Daily
  • Nước nào sẽ bắt đầu phi hạt nhân hóa trước tiên? Sputnik News Vietnam 633
  • Cómo las bombas nucleares podrían destruir el planeta Tucamanalas 7
  • Quien comience una guerra nuclear no podrá evitar su propia catástrofe Contra Info
  • Refugios nucleares para pocos Continental Spanish
  • Existen más de 15000 armas nucleares en el planeta, bastan 100 para acabar la humanidad el territorio 44.1k Argentina

Radio[edit | edit source]

2019[edit | edit source]

  1. The Madness of Nuclear Weapons The Duran
  2. The man who wants to save humanity from nuclear winter Vox 1.1k
  3. Nuclear war between India and Pakistan would unleash 'global climate catastrophe', scientists warn Fox News 219
  4. World without nuclear, amen! Vangaurd 2766, Premium Times 5.7k, The World News 39.6k, The News Guru 99.7k, The News Diary 117.3k, Suregist, The News Nigeria 115k
  5. How Big Would a Nuclear War Need to Be to Upend Global Civilization? Real Clear Science 51k
  6. From the files of 'pleasant thoughts' questions: How big would a nuclear war need to be to upend human civilization as we know it? Fark 9.1k
  7. The end of the world as we know it! Scientists say it would only take 100 ballistic missiles to start a Nuclear Autumn that could leave more than two billion dead The Daily Mail 238 youtube video text summary
  8. 全球共13865枚核弹,只要100枚爆炸就能导致20亿人死亡 XW.QQ.com 6
  9. 美媒:全球现存13865枚核弹,100枚爆炸就能致20亿人死亡 IFeng.com (Phoenix TV) 708
  10. Only 100 nuclear missiles can kill two billion people News Track Live 1640 (India)
  11. 全球共13865枚核弹,只要100枚爆炸就能导致20亿人死亡 (转载) Tianya 51
  12. 美媒:全球现存13865枚核弹,100枚爆炸就能致20亿人死亡 ACfun 3636
  13. 全球共13865枚核弹,只要100枚爆炸就能导致20亿人死亡 Junshi 55.8k
  14. Scientists say only 100 ballistic missiles would start a Nuclear Autumn and leave two billion dead
    1. The Herald Publicist 31.5k
    2. Headlinez Pro 75k
    3. Whats New 2 Day 143k
    4. The World News UK 260k
    5. The Long Room 230k
    6. News Feeds 410k
    7. Denton Daily 415k
    8. Wellston Journal
    9. Intercontinental News
    10. ElotiTV

2020[edit | edit source]

  1. Nuclear war could be devastating for the US, even if no one shoots back The Conversation 2791
    1. Yahoo News 13
    2. Houston Chronicle 464 (169k circulation)
    3. San Francisco Chronicle 1.6k (164k circulation)
    4. Phys 5.4k
    5. Flip Board 7.8k
    6. Seattle Pi 14.2k
    7. MENAFN 23.3k
    8. Economic Times 27.7k
    9. Lincoln Journal Star 52k
    10. The Hour 86.6k
    11. San Antonio Express 98k
    12. Strategic Culture Foundation 104k
    13. Big News Network 119k
    14. Consortium News 127k
    15. MBS News 166k
    16. The Telegraph 178k
    17. Dispatch Argus 186k
    18. Idaho Press Tribune 188k
    19. GoSkagit 200k
    20. Rocket News 206k
    21. LMT 215k
    22. Bozeman Daily Chronicle 227k
    23. Albany Democrat Herald 294k
    24. The World 333k
    25. Beaumont Enterprise 343k
    26. Darien Times 406k
    27. Homeland Security Newswire 428k
    28. Birmingham Star
    29. Shelton Herald
    30. New Cannan
    31. Fairfield Citizen
    32. Jacksonville Courier
    33. News Pronto
    34. E News US
    35. EDM Digest
    36. Wilton Bulletin
    37. Wall Street Window
  1. Nuclear War Could Be Devastating for America—With or Without a Retaliatory Strike National Interest 7041
    1. Yahoo News 13
    2. Yahoo Finance 13
  2. Op-ed: A nuclear war would devastate the US, even if no one shot back Navy Times 92.4k
  3. Your turn: The domestic risk of nuclear autumn 127k
  4. The scientist told about the consequences of a nuclear attack for the United States KXAN36 News NBC New York 382k
  5. The scientist called the possible consequences for the United States in the event of a nuclear strike The Teller Report 75k
  6. The scientist told about the consequences of a nuclear attack for the United States Buzz on Live

International[edit | edit source]

  1. Учёный назвал возможные последствия для США в случае ядерного удара Rt (Russian) 300
  2. Starting Nuclear War May Be ‘Devastating’ for US Even If No One Retaliates, American Scientist Says Sputnik News 739
  3. La guerra nuclear puede devastar Estados Unidos, incluso sin adversario atómico La Vanguardia (Spanish) 1316 (circulation 196k, 4th in Spain)
  4. La guerra nuclear puede devastar EEUU, incluso sin adversario atómico Europapress 8271 (Spanish)
    1. El Pais
    2. El Periodico de Mexico
  5. La guerra nuclear puede devastar EEUU, incluso sin adversario atómicoNotimerica (Spanish) 41.3k
  6. Guerra nucleare devastante per USA anche senza ritorsioni nemiche Notizies Scientifiche (Italian)
  7. Kịch bản hạt nhân nguy hiểm với Mỹ và toàn cầu Toquoc 53.3k (Vietnamese)
    1. VNNHANH 446k
    2. Docbao TV
    3. vntintuc
  8. سلاح های اتمی می توانند آمریکا را نابود کنند، حتی اگر هیچ کس به شلیک آن پاسخ ندهد Farsnews (Iran) 3237
  9. سلاح های اتمی می توانند آمریکا را نابود کنند، حتی اگر هیچ کس به شلیک آن پاسخ ندهد Ghatreh (Iran) 6509
  10. سلاح های اتمی می توانند آمریکا را نابود کنند، حتی اگر هیچ کس به شلیک آن پاسخ ندهد Bloghnews (Iran) 147k
  11. The destruction of Russia has proved deadly for US Hand of Moscow
  12. Konsekuensi dari Serangan Nuklir Konfirmasi Times (Indonesia)
  13. [Iniciar una guerra nuclear puede ser «devastador» para Estados Unidos incluso si nadie toma represalias : Centífico estadounidense] New Front (Spanish) 17.5k
  14. El científico informó sobre las consecuencias de un ataque nuclear para Estados Unidos :: Sociedad :: RBC Notiulti (Spanish) 240k
  15. La guerra nuclear puede devastar Estados Unidos, incluso sin adversario atómico Viriji (Spanish) 116k
  16. Důsledky jaderného útoku budou pro USA i bez odvety zničující! Pvrnizpravy (Czech) 470k
  17. Una guerra nucleare può essere "devastante" per gli USA anche in mancanza di second strike Sputnik Italy 704
  18. Tratado de No-Proliferación Nuclear 2020: ¿hacia una Crisis Profunda? Diario COnstitucional (Spanish) 175k
  19. Asia-Pacífico: un análisis de la tensión Nuclear Militar, pensando en el siglo XXI BCN (Chile) 40.2k