Motivations and Global Prospective[edit | edit source]

For more than 40 years, integrated PV-battery systems have been used in off-grid regions.In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) systems, commonly used as distributed generation facilities are attracting great attention from research centers and industries in different countries. The reason behind that is most importantly related to prices reduction of PV and battery energy systems (BES),[1][2][3][4] leading to increasing interests for a mass-scale transition to off-grid PV-BES, even at on-grid locations. Another important reason is that the flow of technology transformation in the case of PV systems is not being stopped and many new PV technologies with higher efficiencies have been developed and introduced. As a consequence,It is believed that PV power generation has a significant potential to replace fossil fuels.[5] Universal solar installed capacity saw a considerable growth from almost 41 GW in 2010 to 716 by the end of 2020,[6] with a continuous trend of exceeding expectations.[7][8] Considering only PV with having the highest share in solar energy generation, China is one of the biggest investors, which has promoted capacity from 1 GW in 2010 to 254 GW by the end of 2020. On the other hand, US has significantly capitalized on the developing PV industry due to economic potential of PV systems. As a result, it has progressed from 3 GW installed PV in 2010 to 74 GW of 2020[9] while at the same time electricity generated by solar PV touched almost 170 TW.h,[10] because of existing subsidies offered by government, the use of incentives on electric utility rate, and consumer priorities.[11] Nowadays, PV systems can be employed for both grid-connected and off-grid applications. However, the fact is that having higher rate of sustainable PV development, depends on further engagement of off-grid sector. The question is, what is the limiting issue that has hindered the development of these systems?

The provision of subsidies and the general decline in costs are major factors in the increasing development of PV systems.[3] However, the subsidies meant to offset the capital-intensive for PV investment are evolving in two ways:[3] The injection rate or injection tariff is paid by local distribution system operators (DSOs) and is already or soon will be lower than the retail tariff, encouraging PV generation for self-consumption. Furthermore, Feed-in tariffs (FIT) are steadily declining.[3] The use of battery storage, which may raise the PV self-consumption rate and also eliminate real-time imbalances brought on by forecast mistake, is one way to enable the advancement of PV installations.[12] A comprehensive look at literature reveals that in the recent years, leaving the grid electricity was not economically profitable and could not be a pragmatic idea for many countries and locations with respect to the fact that economics is the basic driver of the customer to use off-grid systems,[13][14][15] where the instruments with the shortest payback period are among the most attractive investment for residential customers with electricity demands.[16] While contrary, a continuous decrease in the prices of PV and battery systems,[1][2][3][4] leading to a dramatic interest from the citizens and some governments about living off-grid to remove the risks related to the spread of electricity tariffs,[17] and increasing the speed of replacing grid with off-grid PV.[13] Therefore the fear of leaving the grid system is reducing. However, PV-Battery storage system profitability is influenced by a variety of elements, including technological, political, and regional ones.[2]

Problem of leaving grid[edit | edit source]

The national energy system would see a significant change if the switch from using network electricity to self-consumption PV occurred suddenly or in large amounts.[18] In fact, It meant a "death spiral" for utility industries.[19] When a significant number of consumers transfer to prosumers and do not use the grid, the cost of using the network can be distributed to some customers which can lead to increasing the electricity prices. The further increase in electricity costs can cause more rise in the economic attractiveness of off-grid systems for the other customers and lead to expediting the grid defection. This loop can be continued such as a spiral up to collapsing the industry of utility.[19] However, the fear of leaving the electricity grid is reducing nowadays due to the development of low-cost distributed generation technology and the opportunity of on-site, low-cost energy storage.[19] In the near future, massive grid defection would be possible. As the price of solar hybrid system components decreases and an increasing number of consumers opt to leave the grid, electric utility bills rise over time. This makes it more appealing for users to leave the grid and will allow for a bigger penetration of renewable energy in the electricity supply. To avert a utility death cycle, electric and utilities companies should consider making grid-tied net metering more attractive to small businesses.[20]

Background[edit | edit source]

In this regard, in Ref.[13] published in 2015, scholars have expanded a multi-period mixed-integer linear program (MILP) to discover the main and most significant economic decision of customers about PV–battery systems. The authors[13] note that small PV–battery system has a reasonable capital cost and can be used as off-grid systems having the highest net present value (NPV). On the other hand, it also showed to have the highest value of unserved energy. Hence, these systems cannot be used as an technically effective off-grid energy source. Khalilipour and Vassallo[13] noted that the level of grid independence can increase in the years after 2015, but not dramatically when the size of a PV system is slightly increased with a small battery capacity. In addition, based on their results a large PV battery system is the only way of enhancing the grid independence level. They emphasized that one hundred percent grid independence can be possible only by using a very large PV–battery system leading to significant capital costs.[13] As a conclusion of their results,[13] by 2015, taking into account the economic benefits of grid connection in the case of selling surplus energy, a full off-grid system could not be a suggestive method.

Table I- Literature review of feasibility analysis of off-grid PV systems
Ref Year Location System Types Methodology LCOE [USD/kWh] Outstanding outcomes Were fully Off-grid PV systems profitable? (yes/no/ partly)
[21] 2015 Indonesia-rural areas -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-Diesel-battery (hybrid)
  • Diesel
Mathematical model 0.38 for hybrid PV-Diesel
  1. 76 for PV
-If fuel price assumed to be unsubsidised: providing electricity from hybrid PV systems is 19 % cheaper compared to only diesel gensets in rural parts of Indonesia. For most of the rural area, if unsubsidised fuel price considered, off-grid systems were profitable.
[22] 2016 Australia -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-Diesel-battery (hybrid)
Rev Project[23] - -PV with Lithium Ion batteries was the most feasible choice.
  • Hybrid PV-battery-Diesel were cost-effective, helpful in reducing extreme power outages
With hybrid PV systems, it could be possible.
[24] 2016 Germany/commercial buildings -PV-grid
  • PV-battery
- DC topology modeling and optimization
  • Real-time measurements for load and irradiation
- -The load profiles of commercial buildings have a strong correlation with the generated PV energy. Therefore, one of appropriate applications of PV systems could be at commercial properties which have ample space on their roofs for installing solar panels with large power outputs.
  • For Germany, they showed that employing PV systems for commercial applications can reduce electricity cost. Furthermore, if price of battery energy systems could be reduced in future, the electricity costs can be decreased even more, while in 2015, battery storage were not economic at all.
For commercial buildings having high peak loads, using grid connected PV is only feasible in 2015 and with the battery storage in that time, using off-grid PV systems for commercial application could not be feasible.
[25] 2016 US/residential sector PV-CHP and battery A methodology for calculating LCOE of hybrid PV-CHP and battery system -0.212/kWh

(for 0% discount rate and interest rate)

  • 0.223/kWh (3% discount rate and 0% interest rate)
  • 0.229/kWh (5% discount rate and 0% interest rate)
A hybrid system can become a financially advantageous source for meeting the electricity demand and helping to meet the thermal demand of the residential units across a wide range of geographic locations with attractive financing terms, decreasing initial system cost due to technological advancement, and always rising of grid electricity rates. While in 2016, there were potential profit for some users to leave the grid, a potential increase in grid defection in the U.S. in the near future is much more accessible.
[2] 2017 Germany & Ireland /residential sector -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-grid
Techno-economic simulation model implanted in Matlab - - The price of a PV system and the availability of a FIT are key factors to encourage people
  • By 2017, for PV-storage systems,100% self-sufficiency is almost never possible unless the system is grossly enlarged, which would result in a significant cost rise.The achievable self-sufficiency rates suggest that these families will only require the grid to supply up to 25% of their total electricity needs.
-In Germany, for hybrid PV-battery systems, if small storage system considered, then off-grid would be profitable with relatively low IRR.
  • No for Ireland for PV and battery market and regulations in 2017, but afterwards, it can happen due to technology cost reductions.
[26] 2017 China/residential sector -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-grid
Techno-economic simulation in

HOMER (Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources)

-grid connected:0.068-0.088
  • off-grid:0.19-0.30
-The capacity of off-

grid systems were 5-10 kW

  • The LCOE trend in different climate zones can be related to cost of equipment, solar irradiation level,as well as retail electricity prices.
- Over the following decades, off-grid PV systems will achieve grid parity in China.
[27] 2018 Australia -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-grid
  • Grid
Techno-economic model programmed in R
  • Forecasting and scenarios for 15 years
- - They foretasted that within 15 years, PV-battery systems in Australia will be financially feasible due to declining installation prices for PV and battery technologies.

Additionally, the feed-in tariff's removal results in greater grid defection, so that PV-battery customers will be able to cut grid demand by more than 90%.

[18] 2018 France//residential sector -PV-battery (PV) - Economic model 0.238 - When switching to PV self-consumption, regular and gradual policy should be used to give stakeholders ample time to adjust to the new market environment.
  • Shift to PV self-consumption offers numerous favourable chances for PV development.
- Before 2030 in France, residential PV-Li-ion battery systems could be economically viable for individual investors.
[28] 2019 Australia/houses/Seven cities -PV-battery (PV)
  • PV-gasoline-battery (hybrid)
  • Grid
-Building simulations/ different sizes and building materials for various types of homes/two occupancy patterns
  • Techno-economic model using AusZEH design tool
- -Even without solar feed-in tariff subsidies, grid-connected net zero energy homes are still economically feasible in all seven of the cities examined and are preferable to entirely off-grid homes in both the present and the predicted future climates.
  • The payback periods for larger homes are longer than those for smaller homes.
- For warm and moderate climates, large PV-battery systems were required and payback period is longer than 15.8 years under the 2019 economic situations and cost of equipment (specifically battery).
  • For PV-gasoline-battery (hybrid) systems in mild and warm climates, the payback period is extremely lower compared to only PV-battery and for a house it could be feasible to operate off-grid if PV-battery is hybridized with on-site gasoline generator. However, it may not be feasible for colder regions.
[29] 2019 Nigeria/industrial (private) -PV-diesel-battery (hybrid) Homer 0.12-0.42 - Many different companies in the Nigerian private sector can economically benefit from solar PV and diesel hybrid energy systems.
  • The findings showed that the LCOE is cheaper for each industry studied when solar PV is included, even it is still cheap when batteries are coupled, while brings more reliability than the electricity currently provided by the grid.


Yes
[20] 2020 U.S/commercial sector -PV-diesel-battery (hybrid)
  • Grid
Techno-economic model 0.06-0.37 for Hybrid
  1. 094-0.154 for grid
- With the 2019 costs for every component of the solar hybrid system, and considering no government subsidies or incentives, grid defection was financially feasible for small and medium size enterprises (SMEs).
  • Without new policy measures, massive grid defection is possible.

As the price of solar hybrid system components decreases and an increasing number of consumers opt to leave the grid, electric utility bills rise over time. This makes it more appealing for users to leave the grid and will allow for a bigger penetration of renewable energy in the electricity supply. Departing from the grid currently entails a high initial investment with a high return on investment, but this initial investment will continue to drop as more time, money, and public support is invested in renewable energy research. To avert a utility death cycle, electric companies should consider making grid-tied net metering more attractive to small businesses.

Yes
[11] 2020 U.S -PV-battery (PV) A linear optimization model for PV-battery sizing - - In 2020, their findings indicated that PV/storage systems had a limited ability to economically replace grid services.
  • In a scenario where reliability is slightly decreased, the percentage of U.S. households leaving the grid might rise from 1 percent to 7 percent.
-
[30] 2021 Germany/households -PV-battery
  • PV-grid
A decision support modeling 0.054-0.0702 - large amounts of excess energy, around 45% was found in summer time.
  • In order to decrease the quantity of excess energy that cannot be stored, it is economically more viable to waste the excess energy rather than install more energy storage capacity at the current battery pricing.
-In Germany in 2021, going 100% off the grid solely using PV batteries was not an economically viable option. However, If the excess energy is sold to the grid and paid for through the FiT programme, or if there is a price difference between the electricity used in the home and that purchased from the grid, it may be financially viable.Due to the considerable amount of extra electricity, the first one is more important.
  • For Germany's houses using PV technology, the best course of action economically would be to stay connected to the grid, which could be done by reducing the amount of electricity it buys from the grid and establishing a PV-battery system of an optimal size.
[3] 2022 Switzerland -PV-battery
  • PV-grid
Techno-economic optimization model - 0.0824 for PV-battery
  • 0.0785$ for -PV-grid
- According to their findings, combining a battery with PV in some cases is economically feasible today, especially for investors who have significant yearly electricity use.
  • Different consumer groups, geographic regions, solar irradiation, and rooftop sizes create different yearly electricity usage all of which affect the profitability and appropriate size of the PV-BES system.
  • The PV-BES system's economics are particularly susceptible to changes in PV and battery costs,[31][32][33][34] injection tariffs, and wholesale and retail energy prices.[35][36][37]
  • The work[38] demonstrates

substantial variability in profitability even for households with similar yearly demand and highlights the necessity of taking heterogeneity in load profiles.

Ref.[38] examines households in Switzerland and shows that practically all households with 7000 kWh of annual demand are profitable for PV-battery.

See Also[edit | edit source]

Conclusion[edit | edit source]

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