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Economic viability of SME Grid Defection Literature Review
| By Michigan Tech's Open Sustainability Technology Lab.
Wanted: Students to make a distributed future with solar-powered open-source 3-D printing.
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Papers Read
- 2.1 Hybrid Systems
- 2.1.1 A combined optimization concept for the design and operation strategy of Hybrid-PV energy systems
- 2.1.2 A review on photovoltaic/thermal hybrid solar technology
- 2.1.3 Analysis of hybrid energy systems for application in southern Ghana
- 2.1.4 Expanding photovoltaic penetration with residential distributed generation from hybrid solar photovoltaic and combined heat and power systems
- 18.104.22.168 Abstract
- 22.214.171.124 Introduction
- 126.96.36.199 Technical limits to PV penetration in the current grid
- 188.8.131.52 Electrical and heat requirements of representative U.S. single family residences
- 184.108.40.206 Design of solar PV and CHP hybrid systems
- 220.127.116.11 Methodology: sizing the PV+CHP System
- 18.104.22.168 Results
- 2.2 LCOE/Economic Evaluations
- 2.2.1 Assumptions and the levelized cost of energy for photovoltaics
- 2.2.2 Leaving the grid: An ambition or a real choice?
- 2.2.3 Energy and economic evaluation of building-integrated photovoltaics
- 2.2.4 Net metering and arket feedback loops: Exploring the impact of retail rate design on distributed PV deployment
- 2.2.5 On the utility death spiral and the impact of utility rate structures on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaics and energy storage
- 2.2.6 THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION HOW GRID-CONNECTED SOLAR-PLUS BATTERY SYSTEMS WILL COMPETE WITH TRADITIONAL ELECTRIC SERVICE, WHY IT MATTERS, AND POSSIBLE PATHS FORWARD
- 2.2.7 THE ECONOMICS OF GRID DEFECTION WHEN AND WHERE DISTRIBUTED SOLAR GENERATION PLUS STORAGE COMPETES WITH TRADITIONAL UTILITY SERVICE
- 2.2.8 THE ECONOMICS OF ELECTRICITY GRID DEFECTION. A CASE STUDY
- 2.2.9 The challenging economics of US residential grid defection
- 2.3 Micro-generation / Sustainability
- 2.4 PV Efficiency/Optimization
- 2.4.1 Cooling methodologies of photovoltaic module for enhancing electrical efficiency: A review
- 2.4.2 Design optimization of a large scale rooftop photovoltaic system
- 2.4.3 Solar energy under cold climatic conditions: A review☆
- 2.4.4 The assessment of different models to predict solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for Nis, Serbia
- 2.5 Data
- 2.1 Hybrid Systems
- 3 Papers from other Literature Reviews
- 4 Work that needs to be done
This page is the literature review for the project of examining the economic viability of grid defection for small to medium size enterprises. This project builds off of many existing papers and other literature reviews that will be linked below. The other literature reviews have been updated as well, this page is more for the collection and keeping track of the work that has been done by Trevor Peffley during Spring 2019 semester.
- Optimization strategy for hybrid systems
- Equations for efficiency and other variables in the hybrid system
- Sizing and control setting decisions
- Photovoltaic Thermal Hybrid System
- Equations for performance of Hybrid system
- Focused alot on the possibilities of PV for thermal applications
- Hybrid System consisting of solar, wind, and diesel generators in Southern Ghana
- Sensitivity analyses, economic analyses (using LCOE)
- Equations for power output for individual components in the system
Expanding photovoltaic penetration with residential distributed generation from hybrid solar photovoltaic and combined heat and power systems
- The recent development of small scale combined heat and power (CHP) systems has provided the opportunity for in-house power backup of residential-scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays. This paper investigates the potential of deploying a distributed network of PV-CHP hybrid systems in order to increase the PV penetration level in the U.S. The temporal distribution of solar flux, electrical and heating requirements for representative U.S. single family residences were analyzed and the results clearly show that hybridizing CHP with PV can enable additional PV deployment above what is possible with a conventional centralized electric generation system.
- PV energy production, which is a large net energy producer and thus CO2 emission reducer, represents an environmentally beneficial and sustainable method of maintaining an energy intensive standard of living. PV, however, has had extremely limited deployment, making up far less than one percent of the global electricity generation due primarily to economics.
Technical limits to PV penetration in the current grid
- Solar PV offers a technical solution to reduce some of the pressure on the nation’s transmission infrastructure
Electrical and heat requirements of representative U.S. single family residences
- The average annual electricity use per household in the U.S. is 10,654 kWh
- By looking at the energy demand and solar supply for a typical home in the U.S. a semi-quantitative analysis can be made at the viability of CHP systems helping increase the penetration level of solar PV.
Design of solar PV and CHP hybrid systems
- This papers system is consists of three technologies, Warm air heating system, natural gas engine generator, PV array.
Methodology: sizing the PV+CHP System
- First, the PV+CHP systems will be sized so that the CHP system can provide complete backup of the PV system to allow the maximum PV penetration
- From this preliminary work it is clear that hybridizing CHP with PV can expand the PV penetration level based on conventional centralized electric generation. This study found that a PV+CHP hybrid system overcomes the inherent challenges of intermitancy and enables the share of solar PV to be expanded without completely depending on energy storage technologies to provide backup for PV.
- Generally, LCOE is treated as a definite number and the assumptions lying beneath that result are
rarely reported or even understood.
- Solar energy is the most abundant renewable energy sources, but still represents a small fraction of the overall worldwide electricity production. Mostly because cost of generation from PV is higher than grid connected (currently).
- LCOE can be thought of as the price at which energy must be sold to break even over the lifetime of the technology.
Solar degradation rate
- The rate at which solar cell performance degrades may depend on the type of solar cell, quality of manufacturing, power production level, and local weather/climate.
- system degradation rate is generally treated as a single value in LCOE calculations despite the fact that it is known that even within a single PV installation individual panels will degrade with substantially different rates.
Tax Rates and Subsidies
- As with inputs such as solar insolation, taxes and incentives for promoting solar energy also vary widely by location. In our model we have used a consistent federal tax rate of 30% and state tax rate of 8%.
- Monte Carlo Simulation used to create distributions
- The recent rapid decline in PV prices has brought grid parity, or near grid parity for PV in many countries. This, together with an expectation of a similar reduction for battery prices has prompted a new wave of social and academic discussions about the possibility of installing PV–battery systems and “leaving the “grid” or “living off-grid”.
- Global cumulative installed capacity of PV was 1.4GW in 2000, 100GW in 2012, and 318.9GW at the end of 2013. This increase has spurred a more positive image of PV.
- Fast decline in PV prices has brought grid parity in many regions.
- Look into the capital costs of components to make sure that it is viable for specific application
- The feasibility of renewable technologies is critically dependent on the location's richness in terms of the energy resources(e.g. GHI for PV and wind speed for wind turbine)
- Defecting from the grid in a widespread scale may not be a realistic projection of the future, if economics is assumed as the main driver of customer behavior.
- This paper applies energy analysis and economic analysis in order to assess the application of solar photovoltaics (PVs) in buildings.
- there are substantial resource benefits to be gained from using PVs to supply electricity, but the economic cost of doing so is significantly higher than conventional sources. This trade-off is reduced when the benefits of building integrated PVs (BiPVs) are considered. By comparison with centralised PV plants, BiPV systems offer the “double dividend” of reduced economic costs and improved environmental performance.
- When assessing the viability of technologies such as photovoltaics (PVs) it is important to
recognise the dynamic nature of technological development.
- PV systems integrated into or mounted onto buildings can avoid the cost of land acquisition,
fencing, access roads and major support structures for the modules.
- This paper compares costs in energy and economic terms of supplying a kWh of electricity to
the point of use.
- Economic viability is determined by the profitability of an investment decision or the cash flo
implications of a project. Put simply, to be economically viable an investment must promise a rate of return greater than the cost of capital needed to finance it.
Data and Assumptions
- The data presented for PVs are for poly-crystalline silicon (p-Si) frameless modules of 1 m2.
Data for mono-crystalline modules were also available but the difference between the technologies was negligible and within the range of uncertainty in the results.
- for each kWh of electricity supplied from the average European electricity mix a total of 13.2 MJ of primary energy is used, 11.4 MJ in generation and 1.8 MJ in transmission and distribution.
- for a centralised PV plant 4.15 MJ of primary energy is embodied in each kWh of electricity supplied to the point of use. 3.4 MJ is embodied in each kWh produced by the PV system divided 55:45 modules to balance of system. However a further 0.7 MJ is embodied in transmitting the electricity to the point of use.
- 2.9 MJ of primary energy is required to supply each kWh of electricity from a BiPV cladding system to the point of use within the building on which it is placed.
- embodied energy is reduced to 2.6 MJ per kWh supplied if the energy embodied in a conventional glass cladding system is deducted from the BiPV system as an avoided burden.
Net metering and arket feedback loops: Exploring the impact of retail rate design on distributed PV deployment
- Not very useful as it focuses on the economics of Net Metering with respect to PV costs, which means that this paper focuses on grid connected systems and we're looking for grid defection.
On the utility death spiral and the impact of utility rate structures on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaics and energy storage
- Today, many electric utilities are changing their pricing structures to address the rapidly- growing market for residential photovoltaic (PV) and electricity storage technologies.
- Paper presents a dynamic model that predicts the retail price of electricity and adoption rates of residential solar photovoltaic and battery systems.
- Utility death spiral is a positive feedback loop where electric utility customers switch to a distributed generation system causing a fast decline in electricity demand, causing higher prices, driving more customers away.
- Solar PV is growing faster than any other DG technology.
- Create a model that consists of 1) adoption of PV and battery system, 2)Traditional utility model, and 3)net present value of customer purchasing a PV and/or battery system.
- The primary outputs of the model are the retail price of electricity and the number of each type of household at every time step
- For the purposes of this discussion, we define a death spiral as a scenario in which the number defectors exceeds the number grid-connected customers at any time step within the simulation time.
- A utility death spiral due to solar photovoltaic and battery systems is highly unlikely.
THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION HOW GRID-CONNECTED SOLAR-PLUS BATTERY SYSTEMS WILL COMPETE WITH TRADITIONAL ELECTRIC SERVICE, WHY IT MATTERS, AND POSSIBLE PATHS FORWARD
- Looks at the economics of different configurations of solar hybrid systems
- Study finds that Solar-plus-Battery Systems Rapidly Become Cost Effective, Solar PV Supplants the Grid Supplying the Majority of Customers’ Electricity
- Large kWh defection could undermine revenue for grid investment
THE ECONOMICS OF GRID DEFECTION WHEN AND WHERE DISTRIBUTED SOLAR GENERATION PLUS STORAGE COMPETES WITH TRADITIONAL UTILITY SERVICE
- Very Long
- Looks for the point at which solar + battery reach grid parity
- Models four cases, 1) Base Case-uses average of generally accepted cost forecasts for solar and batterys load, in combination with occasional use of a diesel generator. 2) Accelerated tech improvement. 3) Demand side improvement. 4) Combined improvement
- Declining costs for distributed energy tech will lead to grid parity and beyond
- analysis for the base case found that solar-plus-battery grid parity is already here or imminent for certain customers in certain geographies, such as Hawaii. Grid parity will also arrive within the next 30 years (and in many cases much sooner) for a much wider set of customers in all but regions with the cheapest retail electricity prices.
- This paper conflicts with another in this literature review in believing that the utility death spiral is a real threat.
- Master's Thesis
- This thesis focuses on two of these new customer usage trends: grid integrated and grid defection.
- The aim of the thesis is to develop a quantitative analysis to assess the economic potential of DES component technologies for facilitating electricity grid defection.
- It is evident that there exists a conflicting condition. For a grid integrated option, a small PV system is less costly, but is unable to satisfy a higher percentage of grid independence. Therefore, it implies grid connection is necessary. On the other hand, 100% grid independence is only possible with a very large PV battery system which is subject to significant DER capital costs. Off grid systems need to be oversized to guarantee stand-alone reliable service. However, according to PV generation results in grid defection option, such system will have a very high unused energy which could be a revenue source higher than the annual grid connection fee (supply charge).
- Declining costs for solar photovoltaics (PV) and excitement about new technologies have led to speculation that self-sufficient PV/battery storage systems will soon become competitive with traditional electricity service.
Background and Literature Review
- Distributed, home-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems (also called “residential” or “rooftop” solar) have become increasingly popular in the United States. These systems are being rapidly
adopted, apparently because of state and federal subsidies, net metering policies, and costs that are competitive with consumer retail rates, which are higher than wholesale generation prices.
Data and methods
- The decision to go off-grid can be divided into two elements: first, the decision to self-generate electricity by purchasing a residential solar photovoltaic (PV) system and, second, the decision to additionally purchase batteries (and possibly more solar panels) so that the home can disconnect completely from the grid.
- Despite the excitement over home energy storage and its potential to facilitate grid defection, this investigation has found the economics of that decision to be very poor in most areas of the US, given today's prices for solar PV, batteries, and utility electricity.
Micro-generation / Sustainability
- The importance of micro-generation as an instrument to reducing carbon emissions in the building sector
- Importance of balancing the needs of electricity and heat
- Simulations of how micro-generation can effect energy production and carbon emissions in two target years (2020 and 2050)
- The work addresses the effect of local energy policies for the achievement of challenging climate targets, focusing on the impact of micro-generation technologies on the energy systems.
- Mostly about cooling PV modules which can affect the lifespan and power outputs adversely.
- Not very useful considering most of the year for the case this paper is looking at is very cold.
- This paper presents the optimization process of a grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system, which is intended to replace a large-scale thermal solar system on the rooftop of a Federal office building.
- The optimization method is based on maximizing the utilization of the array output energy, and, at the same time, minimizing the electricity power sold to grid.
- the cost of entire system still remains relatively high compared with traditional power generation technology. The high cost necessitates that the design parameters, such as surface tilt angle and array size, should be optimized.
- Goes into the different factors that need to be optimized in a PV Array such as tilt angle, and Array size optimization for needs (in grid connected system)
- A 43.2kW grid connected PV system was was designed and its performance at local climate conditions was simulated.
This paper presents an extensive review of solar-energy-based technologies and research work conducted under cold climatic conditions. These conditions include mountainous, continental, cold oceanic and polar climates and in general, all climates where below Zero temperatures are common during the winter.
- Energy issues will dominate the world situation during the 21th century. The increase in the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere and the consequences in terms of climate change are expected to be dramatic.
- Solar energy has been mostly developed in hot sunny regions, but research on them in cold climates is still developing.
- Solar Cells have better efficiency at colder temperatures.
Solar Energy use under cold conditions: review
- Covers Building Optimization, Historical Building integration, Greenhouses for solar/thermal, solar thermal collectors, solar cooling, and solar combined with other energy supply solutions.
- This review highlights various research studies conducted recently on the use of solar energy under cold conditions.
- On a general basis, most of these studies demonstrate that developing solar energy is an advantage even under cold climates.
The assessment of different models to predict solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for Nis, Serbia
- Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper.
- Technological innovation along with policy support, economies of scale, improved manufacturing processes and a rapid PV market growth have led to a significant reduction of the manufacturing
costs, reflected by a well-documented downward trend in module prices over the years.
- The solar irradiance intensity, solar energy, the ambient temperature and the wind speed were measured by a DAVIS Vantage Pro (USA) meteorological weather station.
- The electrical efficiency depends on the spectrum and intensity of the incident sunlight and the solar cell temperature. All of these factors are site-dependent and affect the amount of energy that can be generated by the solar module.
- On the basis of the modeled and experimentally obtained results for the solar module temperature, output power and efficiency, one can conclude the following: Solar module temp, solar module output power, solar module efficiency.
- Data regarding DOE energy usage
Papers from other Literature Reviews
The following list is papers that were used for this literature review that were taken from other literature reviews. Descriptions for each paper can be found at their respective literature review pages.
- A review of solar photovoltaic levelized cost of electricity
- An economic analysis of photovoltaics versus traditional energy sources: Where are we now and where might we be in the future?
- Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya
- Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: Key Drivers and Sensitivities
- Control strategies and configurations of hybrid distributed generation systems
- Cost-benefit analysis of a photovoltaic power plant
- Dispatch strategy and model for hybrid photovoltaic and trigeneration power systems
- Dynamic programming to a CHP-HES system
- Economic and environmental evaluation of micro CHP systems with different operating modes for residential buildings in Japan
- Economic optimization and sensitivity analysis of photovoltaic system in residential buildings
- Economical and environmental analysis of grid connected photovoltaic systems in Spain
- Economics of Solar Photovoltaic Systems
- Emerging economic viability of grid defection in a northern climate using solar hybrid systems
- Energetic hybrid systems for residential use
- Energy dispatching based on predictive controller of an off-grid wind turbine/photovoltaic/hydrogen/battery hybrid system
- Expanding photovoltaic penetration with residential distributed generation from hybrid solar photovoltaic and combined heat and power systems
- Hybrid PV-CHP distributed system: Design aspects and realization
- Hybrid solar-fuel cell combined heat and power syytems over photovoltaic-cogen systems including effects of battery storage
- Institutional scale operational symbiosis of photovoltaic and cogeneration energy systems
- Large-scale integration of wind power into different energy systems
- Micro combined heat and power (MCHP) technologies and applications
- Micro-CHP systems for residential applications
- Microgeneration model in energy hybrid system - cogeneration and PV panels
- Modeling and Simulation of photovoltaic Module using MATLAB/Simulink
- Modeling an off-grid integrated renewable energy system for rural electrification in India using photovoltaics and anaerobic digestion
- Modeling the Italian household sector at the municipal scale: Micro-CHP, renewables and energy efficiency
- Optimal power scheduling in a Virtual Power Plant
- Optimization for cogeneration systems in buildings based on life cycle assesment
- Optimizing design of household scale hybrid solar photovoltaic + combined heat and power systems for Ontario
- Photovoltaics energy: Improved modeling and analysis of the levellized cost of energy (LCOE) and grid parity - Egypt case study
- Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power
- Renewable energy strategies for sustainable development
- Solar photovoltaic systems: the economics of a renewable energy resource
- SolarPro Magazine - Levelized Cost of Energy
- Technical and economic feasibility study using Micro CHP in the different climate zones of Iran
- Techno-economic analysis of an off-grid photovoltaic natural gas power system for a university
- The cost of storage - How to calculate the levelized cost of stored energy (LCOE) and applications to renewable energy generation
- The effect of installation of next-generation home energy systems in Japan
- The present and future of residential refrigeration, power generation and energy storage
- The prospects for cost competitive solar PV power
- The value of module efficiency in lowering the levelized cost of energy of photovoltaic systems
Work that needs to be done
There is still some work that needs to be done, (There are 5-7 papers that I would like to add before Tuesday that are about CHP and different types of generators).
- Find specific CHP/generator systems and power produced by them and costs
- Costs of PV cells around the area, the power rating, and how much they actually produce
- Find out the sizes of businesses that this will apply to and dig through DOE information for it
- Figure out how to use HOMER software and put the above values into it
- More that I can't think of currently