Aerosol pandemics/BadSoon

These pages present a preliminary sketch for a strategy in preparedness and response to a specific pandemic scenario: one in which a virus that's mainly transmitted via aerosols starts spreading rapidly, causes severe cases and deaths in big numbers including in the young and previously healthy, and risks creating an unseen degree of disruption in vital services that significantly adds to the death toll.

It aims to consolidate current knowledge on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) into an actionable framework, aiming for education, practical protection, and societal resilience.

It's a rough version for now, while I also work on the User:LucasG/to-do. The plan is to do both in parallel: 1) bring the text from my computer to this page and refine it, and 2) improve a few of the portal pages that contain the details and start fleshing them out consistently.

This section makes the case that a severe aerosol pandemic is plausible, current preparedness is inadequate, and that a clear focus on global NPI strategy is both necessary and possible.

• 1.1. It May Happen: The world has seen 5 aerosol driven pandemics in the last 130 years. Several flu subtypes are seen as potential candidates for the next one; in particular, H5N1 is suspected to be capable of high severity, has affected hundreds of humans (without sustained human to human transmission in the moment of writing this), and has increased its spread in mammals in recent years (wild animals, cows, cats). Could we have a severe aerosol pandemic in the next years?
• 1.2. We Are Not Ready: The statement "we are not ready" has been said by politicians and scientists alike. The predominant emphasis is on slow medical countermeasures (vaccines, antivirals) and passive surveillance, or in even slower physical measures to "clean the air", with no horizon for rapid deployment at worldwide scale.
• 1.3. Deeply Flawed Assumptions: ...
• 1.4. We Can Improve NPIs for the World: Introduces the core thesis: through open-source innovation, strategic stockpiling, and public education, we can build a "bridge" of practical protection to save lives and maintain vital systems before vaccines scale.

Provides the foundational knowledge needed for individuals and officials to make informed decisions.

• 2.1. The Aerosol Transmission Model: Explains the dominant role of inhaled aerosols in pandemic spread, the concept of shared air, and the limitations of droplet/fomite-focused dogma.
• 2.2. The "Swiss Cheese" Model of Layered Defenses: Illustrates how combining measures (masks, ventilation, distancing) multiplies effectiveness.
• 2.3. The Mathematics of Masks and Collective Benefit: Uses accessible math and visual models to show how widespread, even imperfect mask use drastically reduces community transmission.
• 2.4. Vital Systems and Critical Worker Thresholds: Explores the concepts around the vital functions needed to prevent societal collapse (e.g., water, food supply).

Focuses on the most direct intervention: preventing the virus from entering the lungs. Outlines a tiered strategy for different risk levels.

• 3.1. The Tiered Protection Strategy
  • Tier 1 (Vital Functions):
  • Tier 2 (High Risk Functions):
  • Tier 3 (General Community):
• 3.2. Mask Adjusters: The Force Multiplier Details open-source designs (elastic, rubber sheet, 3D-printed), their evidence base, and plans for mass distribution/DIY.
• 3.3. The Stockpiling Imperative: Strategic international and institutional caches of elastomerics and adjuster materials could be effective and the rational thing to do for Day-1 readiness.

Covers measures to reduce the number of high-risk contacts, moving beyond blunt lockdowns.

• 4.1. The Hierarchy of Reduction: Prioritizes safer alternatives: Outdoors > Well-Ventilated/Filtered Indoors > Crowded, Unmitigated Indoors.
• 4.2. Needs and Systems Mapping (Links to Aerosol pandemics/Needs and Systems and https://esiliencemaps.org/files/fluscim: A framework for identifying which activities and contacts are truly vital for survival and well-being; which can be adapted, reduced, or made safer; and how.
• 4.3. Practical Tools for Safer Living: Ventilation, CO2 monitoring, far-UVC, and adapting work/education/shopping routines.

Prepares for the secondary impacts when a large fraction of the population is sick, fearful, or isolating.

• 5.1. Personal/Family/Group Preparedness: Prompts for home supplies, communication plans, and support networks.
• 5.2. Utility/Municipality/Regional Planning: Prompts for continuity-of-operations plans for vital services (water, food, shelter, disease, injury, communications, transport...).
• 5.3. The Pandemic Flu Game (PanFluGame) (Links to Aerosol pandemics/PandemicFluGame): A potentially massively multilayer, online game, envisioned as a way to stress-test plans and build societal and maybe even institutional "muscle memory" for crisis decision-making.
• 5.4. "White to Black Belt" Community Resilience: How could we design a gradual approach to learning how to "do resilience" so that everyone can find their place, and so that if needed many people can progress rapidly. What do we need to learn to increase advanced, decentralized community capacity for mutual aid, local production, and crisis adaptation?

Addresses ongoing improvements that contribute to long-term biosecurity.

• 6.1. The Case for COVID-19/Viral Deep Mitigation Strategy: Maybe learning to control today's pathogens is the best training for the catastrophic "bad and soon" scenario.
• 6.2. Please Work On Improving... Accelerating the slow progress via technology and activism:
  • UV Germicidal Irradiation (Far-UVC)
  • Air Filtration & Ventilation Standards and deployment
  • Other promising technologies (e.g., novel PPE)

• Aerosol pandemics/H5N1BadSoonScenario – The original scenario page.
• The Future We Deserve/My Ideal Panflu - Lucas Gonzalez – Wide view, concise thinking.