Cost-effectiveness of interventions for alternate food in the United States to address agricultural catastrophes: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 08:36, 17 October 2017

Source

David C. Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce. Cost-effectiveness of interventions for alternate food in the United States to address agricultural catastrophes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (in press), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.10.014

Abstract

The literature suggests there is ~0.3 percent chance per year of full-scale nuclear war. This event would have ~20 percent probability of causing U.S. mass starvation due to collapse of conventional agriculture from smoke blocking the sun. Alternate foods exploit fossil fuels (e.g. methane digesting bacteria) and stored biomass (e.g. mushrooms growing on dead trees) and are technically capable of saving all Americans from starving. However, current awareness is low and the technologies need to be better developed. This Monte Carlo study investigates the economics of three interventions including planning, research and development. Even the upper bound of $20,000 per life saved is far lower than the millions of dollars typically paid to save an American life. Therefore, it should be a high priority to implement these interventions as they would improve American resilience and reduce the possibility of civilization collapse.

Keywords

existential risk; nuclear terrorism; alternate food; global catastrophic risk; Monte Carlo; United States

Feeding Everyone No Matter What - The full book main page
David Denkenberger and Joshua Pearce, Feeding Everyone No Matter What: Managing Food Security After Global Catastrophe , 1^st Edition, Academic Press, 2015
Free Preview: Google books
Cover on Academia
Facebook page
Alternative Foods as a Solution to Global Food Supply Catastrophes
Resilience to global food supply catastrophes
Feeding Everyone if the Sun is Obscured and Industry is Disabled
Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for Alternate Food to Address Agricultural Catastrophes Globally
Dave Denkenberger Publications
Feeding Everyone: Solving the Food Crisis in Event of Global Catastrophes that Kill Crops or Obscure the Sun
OSE Wiki "Synfood" (i.e. protein and other dietary components from microbial organisms fed on gas or other hydrocarbons)

Davos IDRC Conference

@@ Line 21: / Line 21: @@
 [[image:Foodweb.png|400px|right]]
 * [[Feeding Everyone No Matter What]] - The full book main page
-* [[ Alternative Foods as a Solution to Global Food Supply Catastrophes]]
 * [https://sites.google.com/site/daviddenkenberger/beliefs David Denkenberger] and [[User:J.M.Pearce| Joshua Pearce]], [http://store.elsevier.com/Feeding-Everyone-No-Matter-What/Joshua-Pearce/isbn-9780128021507/ Feeding Everyone No Matter What: Managing Food Security After Global Catastrophe ], 1<sup>st</sup> Edition, Academic Press, 2015
 * Free Preview: [http://books.google.com/books?id=zP2cBAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false Google books]
 * [https://www.academia.edu/9416519/Feeding_Everyone_No_Matter_What_Managing_Food_Security_After_Global_Catastrophe Cover on Academia]
 * [https://www.facebook.com/FeedingEveryoneNoMatterWhat Facebook page]
+* [[ Alternative Foods as a Solution to Global Food Supply Catastrophes]]
 * [[Resilience to global food supply catastrophes]]
 * [[Feeding Everyone if the Sun is Obscured and Industry is Disabled]]