A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities: Difference between revisions

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Source

• Joshua M. Pearce and David C. Denkenberger. A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities. Safety 2018, 4(2), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/safety4020025 open access

Abstract

This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic. The only effect considered is nuclear winter (“nuclear autumn” in the low weapons limits) and the resultant effects on the aggressor nation. First, the ability of low nuclear weapon limits is probed for maintaining deterrence in the worst-case scenario of attacking the most-populous nation. Second, the ability of aggressor nations to feed themselves is assessed without trade and industry resultant from a nuclear attack causing “nuclear autumn” (10% global agricultural shortfall). Third, the best-case wealthy aggressor nation with abundant arable land is analyzed for starvation and economic impacts given 7000, 1000, and 100 nuclear weapons scenarios. The results found that 100 nuclear warheads is adequate for nuclear deterrence in the worst case scenario, while using more than 100 nuclear weapons by any aggressor nation (including the best positioned strategically to handle the unintended consequences) even with optimistic assumptions (including no retaliation) would cause unacceptable damage to their own society. Thus, 100 nuclear warheads is the pragmatic limit and use of government funds to maintain more than 100 nuclear weapons does not appear to be rational.

Keywords

nuclear war; global catastrophic risk; existential risk; nuclear weapons; nuclear proliferation; nuclear winter; national survival; futures; nuclear safety; atomic bombs; global catastrophic risk; existential risk;

See Also

• Feeding Everyone No Matter What - The full book main page
• David Denkenberger and Joshua Pearce, Feeding Everyone No Matter What: Managing Food Security After Global Catastrophe , 1^st Edition, Academic Press, 2015
• Free Preview: Google books
• Cover on Academia
• Facebook page
• Resilience to global food supply catastrophes
• Alternative Foods as a Solution to Global Food Supply Catastrophes
• Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for Alternate Food to Address Agricultural Catastrophes Globally
• Cost-effectiveness of interventions for alternate food in the United States to address agricultural catastrophes
• Dave Denkenberger Publications
• Feeding Everyone: Solving the Food Crisis in Event of Global Catastrophes that Kill Crops or Obscure the Sun
• OSE Wiki "Synfood" (i.e. protein and other dietary components from microbial organisms fed on gas or other hydrocarbons)
• Feeding Everyone if the Sun is Obscured and Industry is Disabled

Davos IDRC Conference

• Feeding Everyone if Industry is Disabled
• Providing Non-food Needs if Industry is Disabled
• Vitamins in Agricultural Catastrophes
• Integrative Risk Management for Catastrophe Destroying 10-20% of Global Food Supply

In the News

• More harm than good: Assessing the nuclear arsenal tipping point - MTU News 16469, Eureka Alert 27781, Bright Surf. Phys.org 7084, Newswise 157487, Eurasia Review, SpaceWar

• A Country That Has More Than 100 Nukes Is Just Owning Itself MotherBoard 167
• Doomsday warning: It would only take 100 nuclear weapons to wreak global devastation Fox News 261, Free Republic 21818
• Morbid Researchers Imagine a 'Best-Case Scenario' for Nuclear War, and the Results Are Grim Gizmodo 508, Gizmodo Australia 17360
• How Many Nukes Would It Take To Totally Screw Humanity? IFL Science 3178
• Nuclear holocaust needs only 100 missiles 9News (Australia) 6442
• Here's What The "Best Case Scenario" For Nuclear Warfare Is Like, According to Science, Spoiler: not good, very bad. Science Alert 8078
• Nuclear Arsenal Of Over 100 Weapons In One Country Becomes Self-Defeating: Study - IBT Times 17275
• US needs to cut its nukes by 98% if the world is to avoid a nuclear winter Alphr 18225
• It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, chilling study warns (yet there are 15,000 around the world) What really happened 46760
• Don’t have too many nukes Electronics Weekly 128204
• How many nuclear weapons is enough to have a country for its security The Weekly Observer

UK

• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Yahoo News UK 7
• Scientists just analysed a ‘best case’ scenario nuclear war, and it’s pretty alarming Yahoo News UK 7
• 'Best case scenario' for nuclear war could still trigger global 'nuclear autumn,' killing millions of people through starvation - including some of the attacker's own population, study warns Daily Mail (UK) 158 (3rd largest, circ: 1,343,142), Mogaznews, Unv.is (Sweden)
• 100 warheads enough to cause starvation and 'nuclear autumn' Telegraph UK 553 (8th largest circ:385,346), Press Reader 7774
• NUCLEAR AUTUMN Just 100 of the world’s 15,000 nuclear bombs are needed to devastate the planet, chilling study warns The Sun 837 (ranked #1 circ: 1,545,594)
• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback British Telecom 1501
• Here’s how many nuclear weapons it would take to wipe out the UK Metro UK 1640
• Nuclear war WARNING: Trump risks killing 50 times more Americans than 9/11 with OWN nukes Daily Star 2461 (7th largest circ:391,998)
• Morbid Researchers Imagine a 'Best-Case Scenario' for Nuclear War, and the Results Are Grim Gizmodo UK 25147
• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Evening Express UK 79853, Express and Star 57236, Shropshire Star 97435, Bailiwick Express
• Nuclear war would be ‘national suicide’ due to ‘blowback’ from doomsday weapons, scientists warn The World News UK 90329
• It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, study warns Infosurhoy

Russia

• Физики из США уточнили прогнозы по наступлению "ядерной зимы" Ria (Russia) -391, Day.az 5958
• Учёные сделали прогнозы по наступлению «ядерной зимы» и гибели человечества Rusvesna 2004
• Ученые спрогнозировали "ядерную зиму" utro.ru 11057
• Teadlased: rohkem kui saja tuumapommi õhkimine võrdub riikliku enesetapuga Novaator (russia) 27183, w3.ee
• Учёные сделали прогнозы по наступлению «ядерной зимы» и гибели человечества Poliksal (Russia), Newstut
• Physicists from the United States said projections upon the occurrence of a «nuclear winter» Russia News Today

Other International

• Científicos revelan cómo unas pocas bombas nucleares bastarían para devastar el planeta RT(Spanish) 306
• Incluso el mejor de los escenarios de una futura guerra nuclear arroja unos resultados catastróficos Gizmodo (Spanish) 508
• Le nombre d’armes nucléaires, suffisant pour provoquer une catastrophe planétaire, dévoilé Sputnik News France 648
• Cientistas revelam como poucas bombas nucleares bastariam para devastar o planeta Sputnik News Brazil (Portugese) 651
• Czy grozi nam „zima jądrowa”? Sputnik News Poland 651
• Kiedy i komu atak jądrowy może się opłacić? Wykop (Poland) 1150
• Kiedy i komu atak jądrowy może się opłacić? Amerykańscy naukowcy obliczają bilans zysków i strat Wyborcza.pl Polish 3142
• Izračunali koliko nuklearnih bombi treba za globalni kaos 24sata.hr (Bosnian) 4709
• Teadlased: rohkem kui saja tuumapommi õhkimine võrdub riikliku enesetapuga Huerka Post Timees (Estonian)5719
• Teadlastel on mõjuv seletus, miks tuumarünnak on liiga ohtlik, et ükski riik seda tõesti proovida julgeks Forte (Estonian) 6476
• It would only take 100 nuclear bombs to cause global devastation, world has 15,000 Deccan Chronicle (India) 7327
• Taip pasaulis atrodytų po branduolinio karo. Ir tai – geriausias scenarijus Lrytas (Lithuanian) 7748
• Atomkrieg ist eine noch dümmere Idee als bisher gedacht Spektrum (German)-12846
• De câte bombe atomice e nevoie pentru a distruge omenirea? Experţii spun că doar de 100 Click.ro (Romanian) 19887
• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Irish Examiner 21548
• Nuclear holocaust needs only 100 missiles Defence Pakistan 21853
• Seulement 100 missiles nucléaires suffiraient à provoquer une catastrophe planétaire, annoncent des chercheurs Wikistrike (French) 30097
• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Breaking News IE 34168
• Tan solo 100 armas nucleares bastarían para causar una catástrofe global Quo (Spanish) 42,682
• 100 de rachete nucleare pot distruge lumea Jurnalul (Romanian) 47039
• Οι πυρηνικές υπερδυνάμεις διαθέτουν από κοινού 15.000 κεφαλές τη στιγμή που μόλις 900 είναι αρκετές για αποτροπή Ptisidias Time (Greek) 67798
• Atombomber vil gøre stor skade på afsenderens egen befolkning VidenSkab (Danish) 70120
• Nuclear weapons warning from scientists: beware of environmental blowback Irish News 74823
• Científicos revelan cómo unas pocas bombas nucleares bastarían para devastar el planeta Cuba Si 55037, World News Cuba Spanish 90329
• Conséquence d’une attaque nucléaire pour l’agresseur Actualite (French)