User:LucasG/FirstWeeks

Template:Draft First Weeks: A Framework for Aerosol Pandemics

This page is a draft decision framework for the first 14–28 days of a severe aerosol pandemic. It assumes no stockpiles, slow official recognition, and thin trust in central authorities. It is designed for community emergency volunteers, sentinel networks, and local leaders. It uses the OODA acronym but do feel free to plug in any other "sense and respond" framework of your liking.

• Aerosol transmission is exponential; recognition and action are messy: not necessarily exponential, not necessarily proactive, not necessarily cohesive, and therefore not necessarily useful.
• The first weeks are defined by a gap: the virus spreads before institutions respond. In fact, it may have been spreading before anyone even noticed. (Link to "ttd": time to detect.)
• Objective: Contribute to the activation of elements that will be potentially useful later if this is indeed a pandemic and if it is indeed severe, while avoiding excessive burning of energy, goodwill and trust. After all, it might be a false start. The assumption here is hat most of us will be away from ground zero, and that ground zero will itself be a messy place to be in, with massive pressures.

• **What to observe:** News of cases or clusters of severe respiratory illness, unusual absenteeism, wastewater spikes, or other signals.
• **Trigger example:** 3+ severe respiratory cases in the same setting within 7 days, OR 20% absenteeism.
• **How to orient**: Collect news, and importantly questions about what's going on. This helps people read the news in useful ways. The framing might be what the ECDC did at the beginning of Flu 2009: known unknowns, bits of data, preliminary sense-making.

• **Remind many of What We Have:** Aerosol science, easy technology for adjusters (link), and other "haves".
• **Start flexing Map and Respond muscles**.
• Listen, identify concerns, provide practical support.

• Aerosol_pandemics/Needs_and_systems (SCIM) to map what is at risk, and the OODA loop to make rapid decisions.
• [Link to FluSCIM2 Spreadsheet]
• [Link to Playable Models for Mask Efficacy]