The Time For Change Has Already Begun

Abstract

The decade that we are in now (starting in 2010) is the critical decade for addressing how we will deal with radical change in climate of the biosphere (enough changes to cause significant pressure on people employing industrial era approaches). It is also the ciritical time for establishing a significant shift to commons and "p2p" -based approaches

Some project that major change is coming in 50+ plus years. However, I contend an argument can be made that in as little as 10-15 years, multiple pressures will all begin coincide all at the same time. Peak oil figures are set near 2030, speed up of Arctic and Antarctic thaw right now, by 2030 it is plausible that we will have already passed the tipping point for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affecting climates world wide.

Food and energy demand are projected to increase by 50% by 2030, fresh water usage by 30%; India and China (2 most populous nations) both warn their populations that their water demand will outstrip their supplies severely by 2030 (links there to reports on this subject)

Many food producing corporations that run industrial farming operations are switching large scale agricultural production to biofuel which can further increase food costs by raising commodity prices worldwide, and causing food shortages. This price and biofuel production increase is already happening now.

Meanwhile, multiple international corporations are relentlessly pursuing total control of communications infrastructure commons, (and already have virtually total control of) financial systems, energy and food distribution, etc

So, by 2030 (not later) it is plausible that we will already be in a state where millions, if not billions will be marginalized by all existing basic sustenance systems (food, water, energy, access).

Stuart Kauffman, and other complex systems theorists have shown that in all systems, change tends to happen in an “s curve” fashion. Kauffman uses a sandpile as an example in his book “At Home In The Universe”. He describes the data signature of a massive pile of sand collapsing. First small bits fall of, then large chunks, then larger and larger, faster and faster. The total rate of collapse towards the end is exponentially faster than the beginning. I think we are seeing the same with global human systems now, and that we are *now* in the beginning time of collapse, with signals already present around the world. This means we have maybe 15 years, starting *now*, to start changing things in significant ways for as many people on the earth as possible. The volume of change will need to reach the 4 Billion + poorest people on the earth, and the 2 billion + richest.

This contribution to theFWD will not paint a pleasant picture about what is facing us as a species and planet in our lifetimes. And yet, there is a chance to change this. But, the change must start now.