No edit summary |
m (refs) |
||
| Line 45: | Line 45: | ||
The myth of the "market" is that we can just sit back and let the the magical system we refer to as "the market" take it's course, and things will correct themselves. The mythology is that solutions will arise out of market forces based on competition among innovators vying for market share. The sad irony is that this myth is in part exactly what led us to the edge of destruction that we are now approaching. The "market" will not provide. Within the next three years, will need at least 20% of people world-wide beginning to voluntarily and actively take on the activities and approaches discussed in this article to have any hope of effective impact and change in momentum. | The myth of the "market" is that we can just sit back and let the the magical system we refer to as "the market" take it's course, and things will correct themselves. The mythology is that solutions will arise out of market forces based on competition among innovators vying for market share. The sad irony is that this myth is in part exactly what led us to the edge of destruction that we are now approaching. The "market" will not provide. Within the next three years, will need at least 20% of people world-wide beginning to voluntarily and actively take on the activities and approaches discussed in this article to have any hope of effective impact and change in momentum. | ||
'''References''' | |||
<references/> | |||
Revision as of 16:14, 2 September 2010
The Time For Change Has Already Begun
The Time For Change Has Already Begun: Abstract
The decade that we are in now (starting in 2010) is the critical decade for addressing how we will deal with radical change in climate of the biosphere (enough changes to cause significant pressure on people employing industrial era approaches). It is also the ciritical time for establishing a significant shift to commons and "p2p" -based approaches
Some project that major change is coming in 50+ plus years. However, I contend an argument can be made that in as little as 10-15 years, multiple pressures will all begin coincide all at the same time. Peak oil figures are set near 2030, speed up of Arctic and Antarctic thaw right now, by 2030 it is plausible that we will have already passed the tipping point for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affecting climates world wide.
Food and energy demand are projected to increase by 50% by 2030, fresh water usage by 30%; India and China (2 most populous nations) both warn their populations that their water demand will outstrip their supplies severely by 2030 (links there to reports on this subject)
Many food producing corporations that run industrial farming operations are switching large scale agricultural production to biofuel which can further increase food costs by raising commodity prices worldwide, and causing food shortages. This price and biofuel production increase is already happening now.
Meanwhile, multiple international corporations are relentlessly pursuing total control of communications infrastructure commons, (and already have virtually total control of) financial systems, energy and food distribution, etc
So, by 2030 (not later) it is plausible that we will already be in a state where millions, if not billions will be marginalized by all existing basic sustenance systems (food, water, energy, access).
Stuart Kauffman, and other complex systems theorists have shown that in all systems, transformation tends to happen in an “s curve” fashion. Kauffman uses a sandpile as an example in his book “At Home In The Universe”. He describes the data signature of a massive pile of sand collapsing. First small bits fall off, then large chunks, then larger and larger, faster and faster. The total rate of collapse towards the end is exponentially faster than the beginning. I think we are seeing the same with global human systems now, and that we are *now* in the beginning time of collapse, with signals already present around the world. This means we have maybe 15 years, starting *now*, to start changing things in significant ways for as many people on the earth as possible. The volume of change will need to reach the 4 Billion + poorest people on the earth, and the 2 billion + richest.
This contribution to theFWD will not paint a pleasant picture about what is facing us as a species and planet in our lifetimes. And yet, there is a chance to change this. But, the change must start now.
A livelihood based in destruction
The rapidly approaching demand increase
Hiding the problem
As of this writing, Der Spiegel reports [1] leaked documents from the German government where a German think tank lays out a Peak Oil scenario. In this scenario, peaks this year (2010), and global impacts are felt between 15-30 years later.
It's interesting to see documents leaked where major governments confirm what many futurists, thinkers, scientists, and others have been warning about for more than 30 years. It's a strategic mistake for governments to hide problems like this from people. In my opinion, a better process would be to put the problems before the people in a way that lets them offer ways to address that are applicable to their communities, states, countries. I am convinced that effective adaptations would emerge that are appropriate to unique local conditions around the world.
The emerging possibilities for adapting to the coming change
- Sharing and commons (literacies of cooperation and collaboration. The undoing of fear.Design for interoperability first. Share the model and the render. Researchers must make their work immediately applicable to the communities they are working with)
- Design systems to use biological cycles (Living machines).
- Localized ecologies of economies (distributed food, energy, physical production based on shared and open models and designs. People are at the center. Retrofit our cities to create self-sustaining systems of food, energy, physical and cultural production)
- Communities of data sharing, and shared awareness of global environmental conditions (we need feedback systems about our impact on the environment that the whole world can see and understand)
- This WILL NOT be accomplished by market forces alone.
The myth of the "market" is that we can just sit back and let the the magical system we refer to as "the market" take it's course, and things will correct themselves. The mythology is that solutions will arise out of market forces based on competition among innovators vying for market share. The sad irony is that this myth is in part exactly what led us to the edge of destruction that we are now approaching. The "market" will not provide. Within the next three years, will need at least 20% of people world-wide beginning to voluntarily and actively take on the activities and approaches discussed in this article to have any hope of effective impact and change in momentum.
References