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Talk:PandemicFluGame

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  • @Fla_medic: AFD Blog `Four Global Flu Field Experiments ' http://1clickurls.com/GYIyOwh
  • @LancetGH: Public #hospital care in #Africa: first spatial census shows physical access remains poor and varies substantially within and between countries https://hubs.ly/H09NSW50
  • Design conversations with people like @ncasenmare
  • Could be ~rabies: animal to human, stops there. Or could get milder if/when adaptation to humans happened. In fact, this is not at all about "scary". It's about some action. http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/H7N9/situation_update.html
  • I wonder if a high enough number of them would join in for pandemic resilience. That'd be cool... Businesses are ready to partner to build climate resilience https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/blog/shared-resilience-businesses-ready-partner-build-climate-resilience/
  • Gates says that and I agree. I'd wonder who could finance a good solid game ... but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'll collect the notions. Even as I do that, do you see anything missing? Questions? Thanks! @HarvardGH Gates has repeatedly stated that a pandemic is the greatest immediate threat to humanity on the planet. The need for robust veterinary & human public-health systems is evident. Macroeconomic risk is high, so monitor compliance under Art IV
  • Starting to think that game may be mostly about prevention. Even for supply/services disruption. I mean, there's a _heavy_ element of "intense need for agile coordination around vital priorities". But also keep farmers etc alive.
  • Isn't this part of the "international army ready to respond to an outbreak in less than 72 hours" planned by @DrTedros & @SCBriand of @WHO? Gamers from all walks of life trained in game. 10 million gamers & 1000 analysts (another entry point to the game)) learning!
  • Context: designing #PandemicFluGame

Gamer studies territory & earns points for mapping reality: @bodaceacat @willowbl00

1) SCIM: http://resiliencemaps.org @leashless

2) Inside "disease" include existing http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2018/01/aid-agencies-step-in-to-help-control-zimbabwe-cholera-spread.html … @fla_medic @SCBriand 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

  1. goarn and #PandemicFluGame and #fluscim18

0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

_We_ can imagine levels...

http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame

Needs work. Collect links from #PandemicFluGame and improve structure. Links to how to do game design for this kind of stuff, with cooperative style, world indicators...

Football players shout "don't leave me alone!" :-) 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

Still thinking, slowly, about #PandemicFluGame

I had my own story of getting into #panflu, so what about gamers? Could there be a network of possible paths for learning, understanding, a certain level of enlightenment?

"Flu works like this. Could be this bad. Our response..." 2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

http://who.int/dg/speeches/2018/142-executive-board/en/ … @DrTedros, @WHO, gives an epic speech: more non-earmarked funds from member states, army to respond to outbreaks in 72 hours, universal healthcare.

How many #PandemicFluGame players would feel in that "army"? Talented, educated people.

@SCBriand 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted WHO

The beast. :hides: #pandemicflugame (it's of course so _not_ a game)

Lucas Gonzalez added, WHO Verified account @WHO "If we are truly to make the world safe, we must shift towards a greater emphasis on preventing emergencies, rather than reacting to them. Prevention – we have to strike first. We shouldn’t wait until the beast strikes.… Show this thread 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 23

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Sarena Ulibarri

  1. pandemicflugame

Lucas Gonzalez added, Sarena Ulibarri

@sarenaulibarri

Thanks to @TCassauwers for interviewing me for this #solarpunk article! I'm quoted here along with @Threadbare @doctorow & others.… 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 22

Now it's almost end of January 1918+100. #PandemicFluGame feels possible if we give it a push or three.

At least in the NPI area, which is a big one.

Still, very intrigued about the "vital supplies" side. How do we even start to look at that? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 20

What are the moving parts of this system?

(I'm still thinking #PandemicFluGame but you, fellow ant, can go after your own crumbs, as there's plenty.)

What are the agents, visible and invisible? The actions and _flows_? I plugged a hole, no draft now, warmer room... 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI @HansRosling didn't live to see whatever comes next. I'm concerned about external (to population dynamics) reasons for massive deaths. Help to prove that wrong? #PandemicFluGame etc 1 reply 1 retweet 1 like Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 20

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted B N Sullivan, PhD

Together with "many without symptoms" and "transmission pre or without symptoms"... Consequences. #PandemicFluGame

Lucas Gonzalez added, B N Sullivan, PhD

@twellness

RT @CIDRAP: Study confirms #flu spreads by aerosols, not just coughs, sneezes http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/01/study-confirms-flu-likely-spreads-aerosols-not-just-coughs-sneezes 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 19

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Hal Siegel

By @scottwmcpherson Good examples for #PandemicFluGame and beyond. Focused on USA but ok. Supply chains...

Lucas Gonzalez added, Hal Siegel

@hsiegel
  1. Pandemic preparedness means reviewing your supply chains. As the current #influenza epidemic shows, we are NOT ready. http://scottmcpherson.net/journal/2018/1/17/us-health-care-earns-an-f-for-poor-flu-supply-chain-practice.html … h/t .@Fla_Medic

0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 17

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Global Health NOW

Great article. Could similar models, for flu, be used in simulating the results of people applying NPI in #PandemicFluGame ? And what about supplies and services disruption? How to model that?

Lucas Gonzalez added, Global Health NOW

@ghn_news

Which mammal is really to blame for the spread of Black Death: 👦 or 🐀? https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/rats-plague-black-death-humans-lice-health-science/ … 0 replies 0 retweets 1 like Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 17

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Seth Berkley

Luck, yes.

Research, not the only thing at all. Unless we also include research on how to do NPI and vital supplies & services for all humankind.

  1. PandemicFluGame #fluscim18 http://resiliencemaps.org

Lucas Gonzalez added, Seth Berkley Verified account @GaviSeth What stands between us & a 1918 style #flu pandemic? Mostly luck. That won't change unless we invest more in research: https://health.spectator.co.uk/a-century-ago-the-spanish-flu-killed-millions-a-similar-pandemic-today-could-be-even-more-deadly/ #globalhealth 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 15

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Michel Bauwens

This is the name of the new game. #PandemicFluGame

Lucas Gonzalez added, Michel Bauwens

@mbauwens

"How can we enable the formation of Global Cooperative Networks within the existing Global Adversarial Network? How could these bubbles form, grow, merge and eventually shift the whole civilisation towards a more cooperative generative process." https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Generative_Adversarial_Network_vs_Generative_Cooperative_Network … 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/03/pandemic-legacy-is-the-best-board-game-ever-but-is-it-fun/ … #PandemicFluGame 1 reply 1 retweet 1 like Show this thread

Cooperation vs competition. Avoiding the quarterback effect. The plot thickens...

Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Lucas Gonzalez

Ok, for searchability... #fluscim18 #PandemicFluGame @avantgame @leashless ...

Lucas Gonzalez added, Lucas Gonzalez

@lucasgonzalez

How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not

Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.

… Show this thread


How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not

Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.

http://ResilienceMaps.org + #PandemicFluGame #workinprogress

Lucas Gonzalez added, Ian M Mackay, PhD Verified account @MackayIM Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ … 6:15 PM - 14 Jan 2018

   1 Retweet
   2 Likes
   Kerberus
   he cavanagh

1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes

       New conversation
       Lucas Gonzalez
       ‏ @lucasgonzalez
       Jan 14

Isolation of obviously/severely ill? Try. Quarantine contacts? Iirc, only at start of local wave? Student regrouping in small stable groups, soon & for months, to multiply less. Shop, work, transport? Reduce, reinvent, screens, masks, asynch transfer, wash hands... Vax? Later. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

Bottom line, in a severe panflu, the disease or what we do to prevent it or both are going to cause disruption.

It's a matter of choosing wisely from a limited menu + designing actions to make those options as workable and effective as possible.

"Can't do more, won't do less." 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

To treat this mega-challenge as a game, #PandemicFluGame:

1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations

2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges

3) Learn from the solutions

4) Iterate until real bad panflu

Might work? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

Also, assume disruption and minimise it: reinvent vital supplies & services so nobody does from non-flu reasons.

Ex: 1) All elderly & frail need shopping, daily contact, etc. 2) Pregnancy, heart attacks, car accidents etc, still happen. 3) Isolate energy-plant workers in place? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

Finally (for now):

Don't add wars. Keep calm ... really. Videogames, meditation and home-made puppets become a thing to do. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes


0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

To treat this mega-challenge as a game, #PandemicFluGame:

1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations

2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges

3) Learn from the solutions

4) Iterate until real bad panflu

Might work? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 14

Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Ian M Mackay, PhD

How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not

Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.

http://ResilienceMaps.org + #PandemicFluGame #workinprogress

Lucas Gonzalez added, Ian M Mackay, PhD Verified account @MackayIM Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ … 1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 12 Replying to @janeathomason @GavinMacSkin @TinaWoods

I haven't yet started thinking #PandemicFluGame * #blockchain but definitely intrigued. What you say and what you do unto others will stay seen? Why would this be important? Slowly, slowly. 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 10

Slowly going down the rabbit hole of what this #PandemicFluGame actually means. I wonder what others think...

More context at #fluscim18 and http://appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame

And, for even more context, http://appropedia.org/Ebola

Slowly. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread

Within the Ebola page, deeper reflections towards the end of that page. A generative process...

Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org to explain things to an action-oriented gamer.

One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area.

That's my mission. #PandemicFluGame 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd gain any useful insights.

The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

Looking at flu numbers.

IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance).

1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.

  1. PandemicFluGame

1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Show this thread


Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

Looking at flu numbers.

IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance).

1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.

  1. PandemicFluGame

1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

Flu is different every year, and in that context "2X" is noticeable in deaths, hospital admissions, etc.

Plus winter does make any chronic respiratory condition worse. I've lived in boring weather, but I'd suspect worse winters have more impact?

Not minimising any of that. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

But if we think 1918-like, or even a fraction of that, one "just bad enough" that it kills from flu _and_ from worldwide disruption, and in numbers that are say 100X normal flu...

Then I _am_ concerned.

Even an epic win would leave the survivors in tears.

Or maybe I'm wrong. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

Governments, from United Nations to State Members to Substate entities, have done stuff. Written, instigated, helped...

Researchers have recovered artic samples (it was bird flu), modelled impacts, tried t-shirt masks, looked at generic drugs that would be available for all... 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

Still, we all know we're nowhere near ready. So what's missing?

A threat with no shape or date is _hard_. Competes with normal life and other threats. Difficult to even _think_ about.

I did my best in http://resiliencemaps.org but honestly I don't know. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd gain any useful insights.

The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

The hypothesis includes that we'd forget official priorities.

Of course @WHO and many experts are fighting for "a really good vaccine that would solve everything". One that can safely reach and protect all of humanity?

And writing plans, govt & businesses, is good.

But... 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9

What if that vaccine takes 5-10 years to develop, doesn't really work for the new pandemic agent, or cannot be delivered to the whole world in time?

We need to keep/grow some solidarity, and effective action, and maybe even hope, while other things happen.

Or maybe I'm wrong. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

Lucas Gonzalez‏ @lucasgonzalez

So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org to explain things to an action-oriented gamer.

One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area.

That's my mission. #PandemicFluGame 9:24 AM - 9 Jan 2018 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes


Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 9 Replying to @willowbl00

Sorry. :-( Context is #PandemicFluGame and #fluscim18 and what I'm starting is the design of a game to prepare & respond to a severe flu pandemic with prevention but minimising supply-chain disruption. Page is http://appropriate.org/PandemicFluGame 1 reply 0 retweets 1 like Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame is shaping up. Content and more thoughts about the game soon. Unless you beat me to it. Which you totally can... #PandemicFluGame 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

Arthur Doohan liked Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

@Crof @HelenBranswell @ECDC_Flu @CDCFlu @CIDRAP @Laurie_Garrett @artied @correlatedrisk ... Ok, sorry guys. This is a once-in-a-lifetime spam action. I've started a panflu game to see if we could attract... #PandemicFluGame 1 reply 1 retweet 1 like Show this thread

Appropedia.org and 2 others liked Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18 2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes Show this thread Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling: #PandemicFluGame 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes


Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

Googled "random number between 1 and 7600" and got "4984". Let's see where that would be... Vietnam, Germany, DR Congo... Germany? Really? Tempted to override randomness! 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

Lucas Gonzalez‏ @lucasgonzalez

This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling: #PandemicFluGame 10:43 AM - 8 Jan 2018 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

       New conversation
       Lucas Gonzalez
       ‏ @lucasgonzalez
       Jan 8

DRC, Congo for short. Focus on that 1st, then Vietnam and Germany. 1st step in the game would be to learn about the place: people and ages, how they feed themselves, what they die from, what does their trade look like. Softer things like news sources, makerspaces... Epic fun? 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18 2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes Lucas Gonzalez ‏ @lucasgonzalez Jan 8

I'll need time, and deeper recovery from this slow-to-go flu, to do the research. Anyone wishing to beat me to it is of course more than welcome. Even better if you get help! You can respond to this and I'll port to the @appropedia page! 0 replies 0 retweets 1 like