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Difference between revisions of "Talk:PandemicFluGame"

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* Starting to think that game may be mostly about prevention. Even for supply/services disruption. I mean, there's a _heavy_ element of "intense need for agile coordination around vital priorities". But also keep farmers etc alive.
 
* Starting to think that game may be mostly about prevention. Even for supply/services disruption. I mean, there's a _heavy_ element of "intense need for agile coordination around vital priorities". But also keep farmers etc alive.
 
* Isn't this part of the "international army ready to respond to an outbreak in less than 72 hours" planned by @DrTedros & @SCBriand of @WHO? Gamers from all walks of life trained in game. 10 million gamers & 1000 analysts (another entry point to the game)) learning!
 
* Isn't this part of the "international army ready to respond to an outbreak in less than 72 hours" planned by @DrTedros & @SCBriand of @WHO? Gamers from all walks of life trained in game. 10 million gamers & 1000 analysts (another entry point to the game)) learning!
* Context: designing #PandemicFluGame
+
* Context: designing game. Gamer studies territory & earns points for mapping reality: @bodaceacat @willowbl00 1) SCIM: http://resiliencemaps.org  
 
+
@leashless 2) Inside "disease" include existing http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2018/01/aid-agencies-step-in-to-help-control-zimbabwe-cholera-spread.html @fla_medic @SCBriand
Gamer studies territory & earns points for mapping reality:
+
* #goarn and #fluscim18
@bodaceacat
+
* _We_ can imagine levels... Collect links and improve structure. Links to how to do game design for this kind of stuff, with cooperative style, world indicators...
@willowbl00
+
* I had my own story of getting into #panflu, so what about gamers? Could there be a network of possible paths for learning, understanding, a certain level of enlightenment? "Flu works like this. Could be this bad. Our response..."
 
+
* http://who.int/dg/speeches/2018/142-executive-board/en/ @DrTedros, @WHO, gives an epic speech: more non-earmarked funds from member states, army to respond to outbreaks in 72 hours, universal healthcare. How many game players would feel in that "army"? Talented, educated people. @SCBriand
1) SCIM: http://resiliencemaps.org  
+
* The beast. :hides: (it's of course so _not_ a game) @WHO
@leashless
+
 
+
2) Inside "disease" include existing http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2018/01/aid-agencies-step-in-to-help-control-zimbabwe-cholera-spread.html
+
@fla_medic @SCBriand
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 23
+
 
+
#goarn and #PandemicFluGame and #fluscim18
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 23
+
 
+
_We_ can imagine levels...
+
 
+
http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame
+
 
+
Needs work. Collect links from #PandemicFluGame and improve structure. Links to how to do game design for this kind of stuff, with cooperative style, world indicators...
+
 
+
Football players shout "don't leave me alone!" :-)
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 23
+
 
+
Still thinking, slowly, about #PandemicFluGame
+
 
+
I had my own story of getting into #panflu, so what about gamers? Could there be a network of possible paths for learning, understanding, a certain level of enlightenment?
+
 
+
"Flu works like this. Could be this bad. Our response..."
+
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 23
+
 
+
http://who.int/dg/speeches/2018/142-executive-board/en/ @DrTedros, @WHO, gives an epic speech: more non-earmarked funds from member states, army to respond to outbreaks in 72 hours, universal healthcare.
+
 
+
How many #PandemicFluGame players would feel in that "army"? Talented, educated people.
+
 
+
@SCBriand
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 23
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted WHO
+
 
+
The beast. :hides: #pandemicflugame (it's of course so _not_ a game)  
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
WHO
+
Verified account @WHO
+
 
"If we are truly to make the world safe, we must shift towards a greater emphasis on preventing emergencies, rather than reacting to them. Prevention – we have to strike first. We shouldn’t wait until the beast strikes.…
 
"If we are truly to make the world safe, we must shift towards a greater emphasis on preventing emergencies, rather than reacting to them. Prevention – we have to strike first. We shouldn’t wait until the beast strikes.…
Show this thread
+
* Now it's almost end of January 1918+100. #PandemicFluGame feels possible if we give it a push or three. At least in the NPI area, which is a big one. Still, very intrigued about the "vital supplies" side. How do we even start to look at that?
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
* What are the moving parts of this system? (I'm still thinking game but you, fellow ant, can go after your own crumbs, as there's plenty.) What are the agents, visible and invisible? The actions and _flows_? I plugged a hole, no draft now, warmer room...
Lucas Gonzalez
+
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI  @HansRosling didn't live to see whatever comes next. I'm concerned about external (to population dynamics) reasons for massive deaths. Help to prove that wrong?
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
* B N Sullivan, PhD @twellness RT @CIDRAP: Study confirms #flu spreads by aerosols, not just coughs, sneezes http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/01/study-confirms-flu-likely-spreads-aerosols-not-just-coughs-sneezes
Jan 23
+
* By @scottwmcpherson Good examples for #PandemicFluGame and beyond. Focused on USA but ok. Supply chains... #Pandemic preparedness means reviewing your supply chains. As the current #influenza epidemic shows, we are NOT ready. http://scottmcpherson.net/journal/2018/1/17/us-health-care-earns-an-f-for-poor-flu-supply-chain-practice.html … h/t .@Fla_Medic
 
+
* Great article. Could similar models, for flu, be used in simulating the results of people applying NPI in #PandemicFluGame ? And what about supplies and services disruption? How to model that?  @ghn_news Which mammal is really to blame for the spread of Black Death: 👦 or 🐀? https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/rats-plague-black-death-humans-lice-health-science/ …
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Sarena Ulibarri
+
* Seth Berkley Luck, yes. Research, not the only thing at all. Unless we also include research on how to do NPI and vital supplies & services for all humankind. @GaviSeth What stands between us & a 1918 style #flu pandemic? Mostly luck. That won't change unless we invest more in research: https://health.spectator.co.uk/a-century-ago-the-spanish-flu-killed-millions-a-similar-pandemic-today-could-be-even-more-deadly/
 
+
* This is the name of the new game. Michel Bauwens @mbauwens "How can we enable  the formation of Global Cooperative Networks within the existing Global Adversarial Network? How could these bubbles form, grow, merge and eventually shift the whole civilisation towards a more cooperative generative process." https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Generative_Adversarial_Network_vs_Generative_Cooperative_Network …
#pandemicflugame
+
* https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/03/pandemic-legacy-is-the-best-board-game-ever-but-is-it-fun/ Cooperation vs competition. Avoiding the quarterback effect. The plot thickens...
 
+
* How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from. @MackayIM Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ … Isolation of obviously/severely ill? Try. Quarantine contacts? Iirc, only at start of local wave? Student regrouping in small stable groups, soon & for months, to multiply less. Shop, work, transport? Reduce, reinvent, screens, masks, asynch transfer, wash hands... Vax? Later. Bottom line, in a severe panflu, the disease or what we do to prevent it or both are going to cause disruption. It's a matter of choosing wisely from a limited menu + designing actions to make those options as workable and effective as possible. "Can't do more, won't do less."
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
* To treat this mega-challenge as a game: 1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations 2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges 3) Learn from the solutions 4) Iterate until real bad panflu. Might work? Also, assume disruption and minimise it: reinvent vital supplies & services so nobody does from non-flu reasons. Ex: 1) All elderly & frail need shopping, daily contact, etc. 2) Pregnancy, heart attacks, car accidents etc, still happen. 3) Isolate energy-plant workers in place? Finally (for now): Don't add wars. Keep calm ... really. Videogames, meditation and home-made puppets become a thing to do.
Sarena Ulibarri
+
* @janeathomason @GavinMacSkin @TinaWoods I haven't yet started thinking blockchain but definitely intrigued. What you say and what you do unto others will stay seen? Why would this be important? Slowly, slowly.
@sarenaulibarri
+
* Slowly going down the rabbit hole of what this game actually means. I wonder what others think...
Thanks to @TCassauwers for interviewing me for this #solarpunk article! I'm quoted here along with @Threadbare @doctorow
+
* And, for even more context, http://appropedia.org/Ebola Slowly. Within the Ebola page, deeper reflections towards the end of that page. A generative process...
& others.…
+
* So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org  to explain things to an action-oriented gamer. One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area. That's my mission.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
* What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with game to see if we'd  gain any useful insights. The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us?
Lucas Gonzalez
+
* Looking at flu numbers. IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance). 1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
* Flu is different every year, and in that context "2X" is noticeable in deaths, hospital admissions, etc. Plus winter does make any chronic respiratory condition worse. I've lived in boring weather, but I'd suspect worse winters have more impact? Not minimising any of that. But if we think 1918-like, or even a fraction of that, one "just bad enough" that it kills from flu _and_ from worldwide disruption, and in numbers that are say 100X normal flu... Then I _am_ concerned. Even an epic win would leave the survivors in tears. Or maybe I'm wrong.
Jan 22
+
* Governments, from United Nations to State Members to Substate entities, have done stuff. Written, instigated, helped... Researchers have recovered artic samples (it was bird flu), modelled impacts, tried t-shirt masks, looked at generic drugs that would be available for all... Still, we all know we're nowhere near ready. So what's missing? A threat with no shape or date is _hard_. Competes with normal life and other threats. Difficult to even _think_ about. I did my best in http://resiliencemaps.org  but honestly I don't know.
 
+
* What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd  gain any useful insights. The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us? The hypothesis includes that we'd forget official priorities. Of course @WHO and many experts are fighting for "a really good vaccine that would solve everything". One that can safely reach and protect all of humanity? And writing plans, govt & businesses, is good. But... What if that vaccine takes 5-10 years to develop, doesn't really work for the new pandemic agent, or cannot be delivered to the whole world in time? We need to keep/grow some solidarity, and effective action, and maybe even hope, while other things happen. Or maybe I'm wrong.
Now it's almost end of January 1918+100. #PandemicFluGame feels possible if we give it a push or three.
+
* Sorry. :-( Context is game and #fluscim18 and what I'm starting is the design of a game to prepare & respond to a severe flu pandemic with prevention but minimising supply-chain disruption. Page is http://appropriate.org/PandemicFluGame  
 
+
* http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame  is shaping up. Content and more thoughts about the game soon. Unless you beat me to it. Which you totally can...
At least in the NPI area, which is a big one.
+
* @Crof @HelenBranswell @ECDC_Flu @CDCFlu @CIDRAP @Laurie_Garrett @artied @correlatedrisk ... Ok, sorry guys. This is a once-in-a-lifetime spam action. I've started a panflu game to see if we could attract...
 
+
* Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18
Still, very intrigued about the "vital supplies" side. How do we even start to look at that?
+
* This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling:
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
* Googled "random number between 1 and 7600" and got "4984". Let's see where that would be... Vietnam, Germany, DR Congo... Germany? Really? Tempted to override randomness! DRC, Congo for short. Focus on that 1st, then Vietnam and Germany. 1st step in the game would be to learn about the place: people and ages, how they feed themselves, what they die from, what does their trade look like. Softer things like news sources, makerspaces... Epic fun?
Show this thread
+
* I'll need time, and deeper recovery from this slow-to-go flu, to do the research. Anyone wishing to beat me to it is of course more than welcome. Even better if you get help! You can respond to this and I'll port to the @appropedia page!
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 20
+
 
+
What are the moving parts of this system?
+
 
+
(I'm still thinking #PandemicFluGame but you, fellow ant, can go after your own crumbs, as there's plenty.)
+
 
+
What are the agents, visible and invisible? The actions and _flows_? I plugged a hole, no draft now, warmer room...
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 20
+
 
+
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI  @HansRosling didn't live to see whatever comes next. I'm concerned about external (to population dynamics) reasons for massive deaths. Help to prove that wrong? #PandemicFluGame etc
+
1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 20
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted B N Sullivan, PhD
+
 
+
Together with "many without symptoms" and "transmission pre or without symptoms"... Consequences. #PandemicFluGame
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
B N Sullivan, PhD
+
@twellness
+
RT @CIDRAP: Study confirms #flu spreads by aerosols, not just coughs, sneezes http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/01/study-confirms-flu-likely-spreads-aerosols-not-just-coughs-sneezes
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 19
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Hal Siegel
+
 
+
By @scottwmcpherson Good examples for #PandemicFluGame and beyond. Focused on USA but ok. Supply chains...  
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Hal Siegel
+
@hsiegel
+
#Pandemic preparedness means reviewing your supply chains. As the current #influenza epidemic shows, we are NOT ready. http://scottmcpherson.net/journal/2018/1/17/us-health-care-earns-an-f-for-poor-flu-supply-chain-practice.html … h/t .@Fla_Medic
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 17
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Global Health NOW
+
 
+
Great article. Could similar models, for flu, be used in simulating the results of people applying NPI in #PandemicFluGame ? And what about supplies and services disruption? How to model that?  
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Global Health NOW
+
  @ghn_news
+
Which mammal is really to blame for the spread of Black Death: 👦 or 🐀? https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/rats-plague-black-death-humans-lice-health-science/ …
+
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 17
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Seth Berkley
+
 
+
Luck, yes.
+
 
+
Research, not the only thing at all. Unless we also include research on how to do NPI and vital supplies & services for all humankind.
+
 
+
#PandemicFluGame #fluscim18 http://resiliencemaps.org
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Seth Berkley
+
Verified account @GaviSeth
+
What stands between us & a 1918 style #flu pandemic? Mostly luck.  
+
That won't change unless we invest more in research: https://health.spectator.co.uk/a-century-ago-the-spanish-flu-killed-millions-a-similar-pandemic-today-could-be-even-more-deadly/ #globalhealth
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 15
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Michel Bauwens
+
 
+
This is the name of the new game. #PandemicFluGame
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Michel Bauwens
+
@mbauwens
+
"How can we enable  the formation of Global Cooperative Networks within the existing Global Adversarial Network? How could these bubbles form, grow, merge and eventually shift the whole civilisation towards a more cooperative generative process." https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Generative_Adversarial_Network_vs_Generative_Cooperative_Network …
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/03/pandemic-legacy-is-the-best-board-game-ever-but-is-it-fun/ … #PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
+
Show this thread
+
 
+
Cooperation vs competition. Avoiding the quarterback effect. The plot thickens...
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Lucas Gonzalez
+
 
+
Ok, for searchability... #fluscim18 #PandemicFluGame @avantgame @leashless ...
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
@lucasgonzalez
+
How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not
+
 
+
Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.
+
 
+
+
Show this thread
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not
+
 
+
Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.
+
 
+
http://ResilienceMaps.org  + #PandemicFluGame #workinprogress
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Ian M Mackay, PhD
+
Verified account @MackayIM
+
Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ …  
+
6:15 PM - 14 Jan 2018
+
 
+
    1 Retweet
+
    2 Likes
+
    Kerberus
+
    he cavanagh
+
 
+
1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
+
 
+
        New conversation
+
        Lucas Gonzalez
+
        ‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
        Jan 14
+
 
+
Isolation of obviously/severely ill? Try.
+
Quarantine contacts? Iirc, only at start of local wave?
+
Student regrouping in small stable groups, soon & for months, to multiply less.
+
Shop, work, transport? Reduce, reinvent, screens, masks, asynch transfer, wash hands...
+
Vax? Later.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
Bottom line, in a severe panflu, the disease or what we do to prevent it or both are going to cause disruption.
+
 
+
It's a matter of choosing wisely from a limited menu + designing actions to make those options as workable and effective as possible.
+
 
+
"Can't do more, won't do less."
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
To treat this mega-challenge as a game, #PandemicFluGame:
+
 
+
1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations
+
 
+
2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges
+
 
+
3) Learn from the solutions
+
 
+
4) Iterate until real bad panflu
+
 
+
Might work?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
Also, assume disruption and minimise it: reinvent vital supplies & services so nobody does from non-flu reasons.
+
+
Ex:
+
1) All elderly & frail need shopping, daily contact, etc.
+
2) Pregnancy, heart attacks, car accidents etc, still happen.
+
3) Isolate energy-plant workers in place?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
Finally (for now):
+
 
+
Don't add wars.
+
Keep calm ... really.
+
Videogames, meditation and home-made puppets become a thing to do.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
 
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
To treat this mega-challenge as a game, #PandemicFluGame:
+
 
+
1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations
+
 
+
2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges
+
 
+
3) Learn from the solutions
+
 
+
4) Iterate until real bad panflu
+
 
+
Might work?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 14
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez Retweeted Ian M Mackay, PhD
+
 
+
How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not
+
 
+
Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from.
+
 
+
http://ResilienceMaps.org  + #PandemicFluGame #workinprogress
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez added,
+
Ian M Mackay, PhD
+
Verified account @MackayIM
+
Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ …
+
1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 12
+
Replying to @janeathomason @GavinMacSkin @TinaWoods
+
 
+
I haven't yet started thinking #PandemicFluGame * #blockchain but definitely intrigued. What you say and what you do unto others will stay seen? Why would this be important? Slowly, slowly.
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 10
+
 
+
Slowly going down the rabbit hole of what this #PandemicFluGame actually means. I wonder what others think...
+
 
+
More context at #fluscim18 and http://appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame
+
 
+
And, for even more context, http://appropedia.org/Ebola  
+
 
+
Slowly.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
 
+
Within the Ebola page, deeper reflections towards the end of that page. A generative process...
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org  to explain things to an action-oriented gamer.
+
 
+
One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area.
+
 
+
That's my mission. #PandemicFluGame
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd  gain any useful insights.
+
 
+
The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
Looking at flu numbers.
+
 
+
IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance).
+
 
+
1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.
+
 
+
#PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Show this thread
+
 
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
Looking at flu numbers.
+
 
+
IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance).
+
 
+
1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.
+
 
+
#PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
Flu is different every year, and in that context "2X" is noticeable in deaths, hospital admissions, etc.
+
 
+
Plus winter does make any chronic respiratory condition worse. I've lived in boring weather, but I'd suspect worse winters have more impact?
+
 
+
Not minimising any of that.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
But if we think 1918-like, or even a fraction of that, one "just bad enough" that it kills from flu _and_ from worldwide disruption, and in numbers that are say 100X normal flu...
+
 
+
Then I _am_ concerned.
+
 
+
Even an epic win would leave the survivors in tears.
+
 
+
Or maybe I'm wrong.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
Governments, from United Nations to State Members to Substate entities, have done stuff. Written, instigated, helped...
+
 
+
Researchers have recovered artic samples (it was bird flu), modelled impacts, tried t-shirt masks, looked at generic drugs that would be available for all...
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
Still, we all know we're nowhere near ready. So what's missing?
+
 
+
A threat with no shape or date is _hard_. Competes with normal life and other threats. Difficult to even _think_ about.
+
 
+
I did my best in http://resiliencemaps.org  but honestly I don't know.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd  gain any useful insights.
+
 
+
The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
The hypothesis includes that we'd forget official priorities.
+
 
+
Of course @WHO and many experts are fighting for "a really good vaccine that would solve everything". One that can safely reach and protect all of humanity?
+
 
+
And writing plans, govt & businesses, is good.
+
 
+
But...
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
 
+
What if that vaccine takes 5-10 years to develop, doesn't really work for the new pandemic agent, or cannot be delivered to the whole world in time?
+
 
+
We need to keep/grow some solidarity, and effective action, and maybe even hope, while other things happen.
+
 
+
Or maybe I'm wrong.
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
 
+
So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org  to explain things to an action-oriented gamer.
+
 
+
One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area.
+
 
+
That's my mission. #PandemicFluGame
+
9:24 AM - 9 Jan 2018
+
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 9
+
Replying to @willowbl00
+
 
+
Sorry. :-( Context is #PandemicFluGame and #fluscim18 and what I'm starting is the design of a game to prepare & respond to a severe flu pandemic with prevention but minimising supply-chain disruption. Page is http://appropriate.org/PandemicFluGame  
+
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame  is shaping up. Content and more thoughts about the game soon. Unless you beat me to it. Which you totally can... #PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
Arthur Doohan liked
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
@Crof @HelenBranswell @ECDC_Flu @CDCFlu @CIDRAP @Laurie_Garrett @artied @correlatedrisk ... Ok, sorry guys. This is a once-in-a-lifetime spam action. I've started a panflu game to see if we could attract... #PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
+
Show this thread
+
 
+
Appropedia.org and 2 others liked
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18
+
2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
+
Show this thread
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling: #PandemicFluGame
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
 
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
Googled "random number between 1 and 7600" and got "4984". Let's see where that would be... Vietnam, Germany, DR Congo... Germany? Really? Tempted to override randomness!
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
Lucas Gonzalez‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
 
+
This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling: #PandemicFluGame
+
10:43 AM - 8 Jan 2018
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
 
+
        New conversation
+
        Lucas Gonzalez
+
        ‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
        Jan 8
+
 
+
DRC, Congo for short. Focus on that 1st, then Vietnam and Germany. 1st step in the game would be to learn about the place: people and ages, how they feed themselves, what they die from, what does their trade look like. Softer things like news sources, makerspaces... Epic fun?
+
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18
+
2 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
+
Lucas Gonzalez
+
‏ @lucasgonzalez
+
Jan 8
+
 
+
I'll need time, and deeper recovery from this slow-to-go flu, to do the research. Anyone wishing to beat me to it is of course more than welcome. Even better if you get help! You can respond to this and I'll port to the @appropedia page!
+
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
+

Latest revision as of 13:21, 27 January 2018

LINKS[edit]

UNSORTED[edit]

  • @Fla_medic: AFD Blog `Four Global Flu Field Experiments ' http://1clickurls.com/GYIyOwh
  • @LancetGH: Public #hospital care in #Africa: first spatial census shows physical access remains poor and varies substantially within and between countries https://hubs.ly/H09NSW50
  • Design conversations with people like @ncasenmare
  • Could be ~rabies: animal to human, stops there. Or could get milder if/when adaptation to humans happened. In fact, this is not at all about "scary". It's about some action. http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/empres/H7N9/situation_update.html
  • I wonder if a high enough number of them would join in for pandemic resilience. That'd be cool... Businesses are ready to partner to build climate resilience https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/blog/shared-resilience-businesses-ready-partner-build-climate-resilience/
  • Gates says that and I agree. I'd wonder who could finance a good solid game ... but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'll collect the notions. Even as I do that, do you see anything missing? Questions? Thanks! @HarvardGH Gates has repeatedly stated that a pandemic is the greatest immediate threat to humanity on the planet. The need for robust veterinary & human public-health systems is evident. Macroeconomic risk is high, so monitor compliance under Art IV
  • Starting to think that game may be mostly about prevention. Even for supply/services disruption. I mean, there's a _heavy_ element of "intense need for agile coordination around vital priorities". But also keep farmers etc alive.
  • Isn't this part of the "international army ready to respond to an outbreak in less than 72 hours" planned by @DrTedros & @SCBriand of @WHO? Gamers from all walks of life trained in game. 10 million gamers & 1000 analysts (another entry point to the game)) learning!
  • Context: designing game. Gamer studies territory & earns points for mapping reality: @bodaceacat @willowbl00 1) SCIM: http://resiliencemaps.org

@leashless 2) Inside "disease" include existing http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2018/01/aid-agencies-step-in-to-help-control-zimbabwe-cholera-spread.html @fla_medic @SCBriand

  • #goarn and #fluscim18
  • _We_ can imagine levels... Collect links and improve structure. Links to how to do game design for this kind of stuff, with cooperative style, world indicators...
  • I had my own story of getting into #panflu, so what about gamers? Could there be a network of possible paths for learning, understanding, a certain level of enlightenment? "Flu works like this. Could be this bad. Our response..."
  • http://who.int/dg/speeches/2018/142-executive-board/en/ @DrTedros, @WHO, gives an epic speech: more non-earmarked funds from member states, army to respond to outbreaks in 72 hours, universal healthcare. How many game players would feel in that "army"? Talented, educated people. @SCBriand
  • The beast. :hides: (it's of course so _not_ a game) @WHO

"If we are truly to make the world safe, we must shift towards a greater emphasis on preventing emergencies, rather than reacting to them. Prevention – we have to strike first. We shouldn’t wait until the beast strikes.…

  • Now it's almost end of January 1918+100. #PandemicFluGame feels possible if we give it a push or three. At least in the NPI area, which is a big one. Still, very intrigued about the "vital supplies" side. How do we even start to look at that?
  • What are the moving parts of this system? (I'm still thinking game but you, fellow ant, can go after your own crumbs, as there's plenty.) What are the agents, visible and invisible? The actions and _flows_? I plugged a hole, no draft now, warmer room...
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI @HansRosling didn't live to see whatever comes next. I'm concerned about external (to population dynamics) reasons for massive deaths. Help to prove that wrong?
  • B N Sullivan, PhD @twellness RT @CIDRAP: Study confirms #flu spreads by aerosols, not just coughs, sneezes http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/01/study-confirms-flu-likely-spreads-aerosols-not-just-coughs-sneezes
  • By @scottwmcpherson Good examples for #PandemicFluGame and beyond. Focused on USA but ok. Supply chains... #Pandemic preparedness means reviewing your supply chains. As the current #influenza epidemic shows, we are NOT ready. http://scottmcpherson.net/journal/2018/1/17/us-health-care-earns-an-f-for-poor-flu-supply-chain-practice.html … h/t .@Fla_Medic
  • Great article. Could similar models, for flu, be used in simulating the results of people applying NPI in #PandemicFluGame ? And what about supplies and services disruption? How to model that? @ghn_news Which mammal is really to blame for the spread of Black Death: 👦 or 🐀? https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/rats-plague-black-death-humans-lice-health-science/
  • Seth Berkley Luck, yes. Research, not the only thing at all. Unless we also include research on how to do NPI and vital supplies & services for all humankind. @GaviSeth What stands between us & a 1918 style #flu pandemic? Mostly luck. That won't change unless we invest more in research: https://health.spectator.co.uk/a-century-ago-the-spanish-flu-killed-millions-a-similar-pandemic-today-could-be-even-more-deadly/
  • This is the name of the new game. Michel Bauwens @mbauwens "How can we enable the formation of Global Cooperative Networks within the existing Global Adversarial Network? How could these bubbles form, grow, merge and eventually shift the whole civilisation towards a more cooperative generative process." https://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Generative_Adversarial_Network_vs_Generative_Cooperative_Network
  • https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/03/pandemic-legacy-is-the-best-board-game-ever-but-is-it-fun/ Cooperation vs competition. Avoiding the quarterback effect. The plot thickens...
  • How is flu transmitted? Easy... #not Now, let's turn this into practical advice in a deadly+disruptive pandemic. For all the world to do and benefit from. @MackayIM Influenza virus transmission: with or without symptoms, you’re dropping Flu virus http://virologydownunder.com/influenza-virus-transmission-with-or-without-symptoms-youre-dropping-flu-virus/ … Isolation of obviously/severely ill? Try. Quarantine contacts? Iirc, only at start of local wave? Student regrouping in small stable groups, soon & for months, to multiply less. Shop, work, transport? Reduce, reinvent, screens, masks, asynch transfer, wash hands... Vax? Later. Bottom line, in a severe panflu, the disease or what we do to prevent it or both are going to cause disruption. It's a matter of choosing wisely from a limited menu + designing actions to make those options as workable and effective as possible. "Can't do more, won't do less."
  • To treat this mega-challenge as a game: 1) Use known science to create many variations of real-life situations 2) Gamers work out solutions for those specific challenges 3) Learn from the solutions 4) Iterate until real bad panflu. Might work? Also, assume disruption and minimise it: reinvent vital supplies & services so nobody does from non-flu reasons. Ex: 1) All elderly & frail need shopping, daily contact, etc. 2) Pregnancy, heart attacks, car accidents etc, still happen. 3) Isolate energy-plant workers in place? Finally (for now): Don't add wars. Keep calm ... really. Videogames, meditation and home-made puppets become a thing to do.
  • @janeathomason @GavinMacSkin @TinaWoods I haven't yet started thinking blockchain but definitely intrigued. What you say and what you do unto others will stay seen? Why would this be important? Slowly, slowly.
  • Slowly going down the rabbit hole of what this game actually means. I wonder what others think...
  • And, for even more context, http://appropedia.org/Ebola Slowly. Within the Ebola page, deeper reflections towards the end of that page. A generative process...
  • So, I'll summarize http://resiliencemaps.org to explain things to an action-oriented gamer. One willing to increase capacity for better NPI (non pharmaceutical interventions) and vital supplies and services for his accepted mission area. That's my mission.
  • What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with game to see if we'd gain any useful insights. The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us?
  • Looking at flu numbers. IIRC, you'd expect flu to cause symptoms in 8-12% of the population & kill 1-2 for every 10000 ill (for the whole winter epidemic, European countries, comparable surveillance). 1918? Not 10% or 100% worse. Rather, 500X = 50000% worse.
  • Flu is different every year, and in that context "2X" is noticeable in deaths, hospital admissions, etc. Plus winter does make any chronic respiratory condition worse. I've lived in boring weather, but I'd suspect worse winters have more impact? Not minimising any of that. But if we think 1918-like, or even a fraction of that, one "just bad enough" that it kills from flu _and_ from worldwide disruption, and in numbers that are say 100X normal flu... Then I _am_ concerned. Even an epic win would leave the survivors in tears. Or maybe I'm wrong.
  • Governments, from United Nations to State Members to Substate entities, have done stuff. Written, instigated, helped... Researchers have recovered artic samples (it was bird flu), modelled impacts, tried t-shirt masks, looked at generic drugs that would be available for all... Still, we all know we're nowhere near ready. So what's missing? A threat with no shape or date is _hard_. Competes with normal life and other threats. Difficult to even _think_ about. I did my best in http://resiliencemaps.org but honestly I don't know.
  • What is missing? I have this hypothesis, and am willing to try with #PandemicFluGame to see if we'd gain any useful insights. The hypothesis is that a one-world approach, in which we help each other across all sorts of barriers, combined with a sense of epic win, might help us? The hypothesis includes that we'd forget official priorities. Of course @WHO and many experts are fighting for "a really good vaccine that would solve everything". One that can safely reach and protect all of humanity? And writing plans, govt & businesses, is good. But... What if that vaccine takes 5-10 years to develop, doesn't really work for the new pandemic agent, or cannot be delivered to the whole world in time? We need to keep/grow some solidarity, and effective action, and maybe even hope, while other things happen. Or maybe I'm wrong.
  • Sorry. :-( Context is game and #fluscim18 and what I'm starting is the design of a game to prepare & respond to a severe flu pandemic with prevention but minimising supply-chain disruption. Page is http://appropriate.org/PandemicFluGame
  • http://Appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame is shaping up. Content and more thoughts about the game soon. Unless you beat me to it. Which you totally can...
  • @Crof @HelenBranswell @ECDC_Flu @CDCFlu @CIDRAP @Laurie_Garrett @artied @correlatedrisk ... Ok, sorry guys. This is a once-in-a-lifetime spam action. I've started a panflu game to see if we could attract...
  • Wow! I'm at it! :dances: http://www.appropedia.org/PandemicFluGame#Sample_run_of_the_game … @avantgame @leashless @jaycousins @thejaymo @cascio @SCBriand @bevpaterson @janeathomason @bodaceacat #EpicTinySteps #PandemicFluGame #fluscim18
  • This is a game within a game. I'll try all 3 countries at once. Might need, ahem, _your_ help? ;-) :whistles looking at the ceiling:
  • Googled "random number between 1 and 7600" and got "4984". Let's see where that would be... Vietnam, Germany, DR Congo... Germany? Really? Tempted to override randomness! DRC, Congo for short. Focus on that 1st, then Vietnam and Germany. 1st step in the game would be to learn about the place: people and ages, how they feed themselves, what they die from, what does their trade look like. Softer things like news sources, makerspaces... Epic fun?
  • I'll need time, and deeper recovery from this slow-to-go flu, to do the research. Anyone wishing to beat me to it is of course more than welcome. Even better if you get help! You can respond to this and I'll port to the @appropedia page!