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Climate change

1,857 bytes added, 17 January
{{topic header| default.png |Climate change}}
'''Climate change''' due to human influence {{W|Climate change}} is accepted as scientific consensus (see [[Science a significant and lasting change in the Earth's climate over an extended period. In this article we discuss the impact of a rise in the average temperature of climate the Earth's atmosphere and oceans from the 19th century to the present. <ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming</ref> Climate change]]). It is expected to have devastating far greater negative effects on vulnerable communities[[developing countries]] than on developed countries due to numerous factors including exposure to extreme weather and infrastructure considerations.
== The science of climate change ==
{{main|Science of climate change}}
Although the existence of the greenhouse effect has been largely understood since 1896<ref>[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius#Greenhouse_effect]</ref>, there are still a tiny minority of scientists who remain critical of specifics written in some reports of the IPCC{{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} and other organisations. These so-called climate change skeptics{{w|Climate change skeptics}} are a very small generally misinformed or are deliberately attempting to create doubt and decreasing minority of scientists (uncertainty about the science. Certain politicians, lobbyists and economists refer to disinformation from climate change 'skeptics' for their own advantage, portraying an image that climate change does not exist, poses but a relatively large number minor problem, or may even be beneficial so as to be able to prevent action to reduce greenhouse gases (mostly resulting from the burning of economistsfossil fuels). The relative importance GWPF in the UK is an example of climate change as opposed to directly addressing poverty a political lobbying group, which is also open to debatesecretly funded by fossil fuel interests.[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/oct/08/gwpf-funder-leach-relying-on-unreliable-sources-of-info Guardian article on the secret funding of the GWPF]
== The impact of climate change ==[[File:Natural disasters caused by climate change.png|thumb|right|200px|Natural disasters caused or aggravated by global warming]]Although climate change itself has been proven, uncertainties still exist regarding predicting the effects. The IPCC is highly confident that impacts will increase as greenhouse gases and associated positive contribution that climate skeptics can make includes critical analysis of technologies feedback effects kick in (e.g. methane release from melting permafrost, changing albedo), though their severity and strategies - this applies when it is considered analysis rather than polemicthe timescales may differ to some extent.Examples of impacts include:
Note that * Increasing heat stresses as global temperatures rise. While some regions such as Canada may benefit to some degree from rising temperatures, the overall effects on the ability of the planet to support life will be negative. As temperatures rise, many equatorial regions will become hostile to life;* Changing weather patterns, especially more extreme weather events and changing rainfall patterns, specifically increasing or decreasing precipitation levels. Increasing floods and drought periods will have a generally negative effect on [[Appropediafarming]] <ref>www.knmi.nl/africa_scenarios/brochure_Afrika.pdf</ref><ref>http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Water/images/precipitation_intensity_map.png Precipitation changes</ref><ref>http://climatelab.org/@api/deki/files/462/=Desertification_map.png</ref><ref>One solution is focused on solutions to grow more resilient crops, i.e. more resistant to changes in rainfall and has only basic and especially relevant information on climate sciencedisease</ref>;* Natural disasters (ie mud slides, hurricanes, ...) are expected to increase in their severity. See Death toll in 2003 = 150,000 people <ref>[[Wikipediahttp:Climate //www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2003/12/61562 150000 people killed by global warming up to 2003]] as </ref><ref>http://climatelab.org/climate_change_security</ref>:* Sea level rise<ref>Sea level rise: 2m rise expected by the year 2100, 6.5m by 2200</ref> will contaminate a starting point very large percentage of the planets' agricultural fields with sea salt and make them no longer suitable for climate science informationcontinued food production.<ref>Earth under water documentary</ref> In addition, many low-lying islands and coastlines will need to be abandoned, forcing many people to move.* Increasing ocean acidity. As the pH of water decreases due to the input of carbonic acid (resulting from CO2 dissolving in water), life forms which rely on a chalk shell will find it increasingly impossible to survive. This will have negative effects on many ocean ecosystems, especially coral reefs which are the most bio-diverse of any ecosystem on the planet.
== Risk management Historic changes in the earth's climate==There are many uncertainties in predicting climate change. The IPCC{{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} considers that there is a strong probability of serious climate change caused by human activity - but not a 100% certainty. However, their estimates ''may'' be wrong:* Climate change may be much less serious than expected, and we may have plenty of time to convert to a [[low carbon economy]] of [[renewable energy]] and [[energy efficiency]]. Or...* It may be much worse worse than expected, well outside mainstream estimates.
It The term "climate change" is impossible often used to know for certain describe the impact of human- it is simply a matter of considering possible outcomes. In particular:* If there is no caused pollution on the earth's climate change, but we have taken action, then we have invested in a low carbon economy, with sustainable communities and abundant clean energy. * If is important to understand that climate change is worse than expected, and we have only taken minor action, there will be a sea rise, crop failures in some areas causing millions of climate refugees, increased [[also caused by natural disasters]], greatly increased uncertainty in [[food production]], and major costs in adaptationphenomena.
==Impact History of climate change on the world==[[File:Natural disasters caused by climate change.png|thumb|right|200px|Natural disasters caused or aggrevated by global warming]]Both the developed as the developing world will be affected. The developing world is expected to be affected to a greater extent though. Some effects are:* changing weatherpatterns (greater or fewer precipitation on specific areas, the weather is also expected to be much more radical). This will negatively affect [[farming]]<ref>www.knmi.nl/africa_scenarios/brochure_Afrika.pdf</ref><ref>http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Water/images/precipitation_intensity_map.png Precipitation changes</ref><ref>http://climatelab.org/@api/deki/files/462/=Desertification_map.png</ref>* natural disasters (ie mud slides, hurricanes, ...) These are expected to rise. Death toll in 2003 = 150000 people <ref>[http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2003/12/61562 150000 people killed by global warming upto 2003]</ref><ref>http://climatelab.org/climate_change_security</ref>* Sea-level rise<ref>Sea level rise: 2m rise expected by 2100 A.D., 6,5m by 2200 A.D.</ref> will contaminate a very large percentage of the agricultural fields with sea salt and make them no longer suitable for continued food production.<ref>Earth under water documentary</ref> In addition, many low-lying islands and coastlines will need to be abandoned, forcing many people to move.Ice Ages
The earth's climate is subject to large fluctuations. The climate is dominated by ices ages<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation</ref>, which reduce the earth's surface temperature and cover large parts of the surface in ice sheets. There have only been five ice ages to date, that have lasted from 30 million up to 300 million years. The most recent one occurred during to "Quaternary", which started about 2.5 million years ago and is still lasting. In between ice ages, the poles are not covered by glaciers and the temperature is higher. The climate is quite stable in these periods, however during ice ages strong variations occur. These variations are called glacial (cold) and interglacial (hot) periods<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_glaciation</ref>. Glacial and interglacial periods alternate every 5,000-15,000 years. The current interglacial period started 14,000 years ago. == Responses Climate change mitigation ==
{{main|Measures to stop global warming}}
Our Several options areavailable to reduce the impacts of a changing climate. Most of these (the most efficient ones) are lifestyle changes (i.e. stop the burning of fossil fuels, stop eating meat etc.) and can be put in place today. We also do not need to wait for any specific technology to became available. Rather, the essential technology is already here today. Politicians often portray a different picture but it is rarely based in reality. Selected options include: * Reduce carbon consumption Reducing the release of greenhouse gases{{W|Greenhouse gas}} (GHG's) into the atmosphere (ie through energy efficiency, ...)* Prevent carbon dioxide from being released into the atmosphere (ie through carbon capture and storage (CCS), [[biochar]], ...). With [[Carbon sequestration]] - prevent consumed carbon from getting into /CCS, after combusting a fuel, the atmosphere. After combustion, pump it CO<sub>2</sub> is stored in a cavity underground or underwater.* Remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, e.g. through geo-engineering [[ocean nourishment]], [[biocharfertilisation]], planting extra [[trees]], ...* Reduce Shield some of the temperature in other ways planet from the sun, or reflect a proportion of sunlight back into space (paint i.e. by painting roads , parking spaces and [[paint White roofs white|roofs white]]white, spray sulfate spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere, to reflect a proportion of sunlight back into space. ..)<ref>Note: this direct temperature reduction does not reduce carbon levels, so [[ocean acidification]] from higher carbon dioxide is still a problem.</ref>* [[Climate change mitigation]]: build [[heat tolerant houses]] ([[passive solar]] with suitable [[insulation]]), [[flood control]] barriers), ...* Grin and bear it: put up with the inconveniences and the expected loss of biodiversity and increases in certain types of [[natural disasters]] (and hope that there will wait for extinction. The IPCC already considers a 2°C temperature rise to be improvements in almost inevitable. In addition, it also advises the use of most other areas)measures, yet stays critical of [[geoengineering]] options, due to the risks involved.
The best solution is probably a mix of some of these, as no single solution or even class of solutions appears adequate. The less action is taken, the more we will depend on the "grin and bear it" option.== Climate change chain reactions ==
=== Technology ===The change in temperature and weather has a huge impact on wildlife which can become dangerous if the change stays the same.Even the minor change of temperature can lead to earlier hatching of insects or melting of snow which protects snow rabbits from their natural hunters.These effects cause problems like insect overpopulation or too less surviving rabbits to reproduce sustainably.The insects are dangerous because they consume crops and other plans and in huge amounts they are even able to consume a whole field of possible food.Because this problem is getting bigger and even endangers species and if it goes on like this many species will die out and even our own food capacity may shrink exponentionally.
The [[bright green]] approach puts its trust in [[technology]] to give us answers in time, if we just put suitable resources into researching and applying solutions.== Climate Change on the Ocean ==
Technology Earth is advancing and technologies such as [[thin film solar photovoltaics]]{{w|thin film solar photovoltaics}} (e.g. copper indium gallium diselenide{{w|copper indium gallium diselenide}}) offer great hope. However, called the rate blue planet because approximately 72 percent of progress it is uncertaincovered by oceans. The oceans influence the weather on local to global scales, and as while changes in climate change is already happening, action is needed now, without waiting for these new technologiescan fundamentally alter many properties of the oceans.
=== Low hanging fruit Ocean conveyor system ===
The logical place to start is in thermohaline circulation also called the area where potential gains are greatest and costs are lowest. This is '''[[energy efficiency]]''', and it offers cost savings in many areas. Thus the most important, pressing actions to be taken can be taken immediately without economic penaltygreat ocean conveyor belt or global ocean conveyor belt, with suitable planning. Financial planning is an important aspect of this, as investment now may be required to gain long term benefits; it may be important to have programs such as [[light bulb]] exchanges or loans for energy efficiency measures (perhaps paid off through electricity bills<ref> If the energy company benefits from people using more energy, there may be a conflict large scale ocean circulation that distributes vast quantities of interest, so different reward models need to be explored; when the energy company is a government-owned corporation, this may give more flexibility to apply heat and moisture around on a different model in order to encourage uptake. (See [[Incentives for sustainability]] and [[Incentives to pollute]]planetary scale.</ref>)
Another measure is [[renewable energy]], which is more attractive in some locations than others (e.g. [[solar]] and [[biodiesel]] may be the most cost effective sources of electricity in a sunny isolated location, and [[solar hot water]] is perhaps the most cost-effective form of renewable energy in most locations{{fact}}). At this stage the majority of the population in [[developed countries]] have access to renewable energy through "[[green energy]]" offered by electricity companies (which is often not truly "green", but it varies in degree). The cost premium for such energy is very modest compared with most people's overall living costs (and modest compared with the money that most people spend on luxuries or entertainment). ''See [[How to increase the uptake of green energy]].''=== Gulf stream ===
=== Reducing carbon usage ===Gulf stream has the length of 10.000 km. It is one of the largest and fastest ocean current on earth. Originating from the tip of Florida, at 2 <sup>m</sup>/<sub>s</sub>, it brings 100.000.000 <sup>m<sup>3</sup></sup>/<sub>s</sub> water towards Europe.
[[Simple living]] offers various ways of reducing impact as well. To have a serious impact, these need to be actions which appeal to a large number of people, which may be very difficult without changes at the community === Sea level. The self-sacrificial aspects of simple living are unlikely to appeal to many people, based on past patterns. rise ===
Other aspects do improve [[quality As water gets warmer, it takes up more space. Each drop of life]] and are at least possible. These include promotion water only expands by a little bit, but when you multiply this expansion over the entire depth of behavior changesthe ocean, it all adds up and changing infrastructure in ways causes sea level to rise. But that encourage lower-energy behavior's not the only cause of the rise of sea level. Building The rise of [[cycleways]] rather than highways, making communities more walkable, making [[public transport]] a more attractive option, sea level also caused by the melting of glaciers and polar ice caps and introducing congestion charges (as in London) are supported by many sustainability advocates ice loss from Greenland and organizationsWest Antarctica.
Ensuring that buyers of houses and other buildings have access to all appropriate information about energy costs, livability (which improves with good [[passive solar]] design) and environmental impact, could make a big difference to the building industry, and ensure that sustainability is taken more seriously by more builders. === Ocean acidification ===
Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease on ocean pH cause by human CO<sub>2</sub> Emission.Ocean pH has decreased by about 30% already and if we continue emitting CO2 at the same rate by 2100 ocean acidity will increase by about 150%, a rate that has not been experienced for at least 400,000 years. Such a monumental alteration in basic ocean chemistry is likely to have wide implications for ocean life, especially for those organisms that require calcium carbonate to build shells or skeletons. === Cost effectiveness Impact of action =climate change on species ==Note that Through rising temperatures resulting in a shift of climate zones forces species to adapt to the new climatic conditions. By a rapidly increased temperature the cost balance may appear different if [[externalities]] are accounted risk for - eespecially plants not to find areas with suitable living conditions early enough is higher.g. deaths due to vehicles, including emissions; improved health from cycling and walking acting Observations of several species conclude that they are moving their ranges polewards to reduce health costs and improve productivity; and possibly even social cohesion as a result of people mingling on cycle, foot, and public transport, instead of traveling by carkeep up with changing climate.  ==Notes==<small><references/></small>
==See also==
*[[Sea level rise]]
*[[Measures to stop global warming]]
== Interwiki links ==
== External Links ==
*[http://www.ourfutureplanetskepticalscience.orgcom/topic-climate-change OurFuturePlanet - Climate ChangeSkeptical Science==Notes==<small><references[http://en.wikipedia.org/><wiki/small>Timeline_of_glaciation]

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